Vessel operating costs expected to rise in 2019 and 2020

International accountant and shipping adviser BDO says total operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.5% in 2019 and by 2.7% in 2020.

Responses to the firm’s latest annual Future Operating Costs Survey revealed that insurance is the cost category likely to increase most significantly in both 2019 and 2020. In the case of protection and indemnity insurance, the predicted increase is 2.0% for each of the years under review, while hull and machinery insurance costs are expected to rise by 1.9% in both 2019 and 2020.

The cost of both dry docking and of repairs and maintenance is expected to increase by 1.8% in 2019 and by 1.9% in 2020, while expenditure on crew wages is predicted to rise by 1.9% in 2019 and by 1.8% in 2020. Other crew costs are expected to increase by 1.8% and 1.7% respectively.

The increase in expenditure for spares is expected to be 1.6% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. Meanwhile, projected increases in lubricants are 1.6% in each of the two years under review, while those for stores ae 1.3% and 1.4% respectively.

The predicted overall cost increases for 2019 were highest in the container ship sector, where they averaged 3.7%. These are heavily influenced by expected increases in both protection and indemnity and hull and machinery insurance costs. Predicted cost increases in the bulk carrier market in 2019, meanwhile, were 2.3%, as opposed to 2.5% in the tanker market and 2.6% in the offshore sector.

A slightly different pictured emerges in respect of 2020, where the highest operating cost increases are those amounting to 3.8% which are expected in the offshore sector. Operating costs for container ships, meanwhile, are expected to rise by 3.0% in 2020, and for bulk carriers and tankers by 2.7% and 2.1% respectively.

The cost of regulatory compliance was high on the list of concerns cited by respondents to the survey. One respondent said 2020 is “all about environmental regulations and the demand for - and cost of – fuel.” Elsewhere it was noted, the shipping market “will be dominated by the cost of new regulations, not least that relating to compliance with the IMO Sulphur 2020 regulation”.

Crew costs were the other factor uppermost in the minds of respondents. “Manning will continue to be a painful area for ship operators,” said one commentator. Another respondent observed that rising wage costs now represent a real threat to business models, while another anticipates a stronger dollar in 2019/2020, which will affect the main cost of paying seafarer wages.

The cost and availability of finance was another issue raised by a number of respondents, one of whom said, “finance – or a lack thereof – is driving consolidation as part of a trend towards creating mega-companies”. They added: “The market is being eroded by capital providers and hedge fund managers who shun efficiency in favour of scale.”

Overall, 25% of respondents (up from the figure of 23% recorded in last year’s survey) identified the cost of new regulation as the most influential factor likely to affect operating costs over the next 12 months. Finance costs featured in second place at15%, compared to 18% last year. In third place was crew supply at 14% up from 12% last year. Next came competition, down from 15% to 13%, followed by demand trends (12%) and labour costs, (11%), compared to last year’s figures of 10% and 8% respectively. Raw material costs, meanwhile, were up by one percentage point to 8%.

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at BDO, says: “The predicted 2.5% and 2.7% increases in operating costs for 2019 and 2020 respectively compare to an average fall in actual operating costs in 2018 of 1.8% across all main ship types recorded in the recent BDO OpCost study.

“There were some interesting predicted cost increases in the individual market sectors. The increases in the container ship sector for 2019, for example, were the highest in every single individual category of expenditure with the exception of dry docking and management fees. The cost of hull and machinery insurance for container ships is predicted to increase by 4.8% in 2019 and by 3.3% in 2020. For protection and indemnity insurance, the comparable predicted increases are 4.1% and 3.3% respectively. By way of comparison, increases in protection and indemnity and hull and machinery insurance costs in the tanker sector for 2020 are predicated at 1.3% and 1.2% respectively.

“One year ago, overall expectations of operating cost increases for 2019 averaged 3.1%. The fall now to an estimated 2.5% must be regarded at first blush as good news. But this must be tempered by the knowledge that some significant items of big-ticket expenditure – notably those relating to the cost of complying with new regulations - are waiting in the wings.

“It is clear that shipping is well aware of the need to achieve regulatory compliance on a scale not previously envisaged or encountered by previous generations of the industry. This is only the third time that the cost of new regulations has been included in our Future Operating Costs Report, but for the second successive year it has emerged as the factor deemed most likely to have a significant influence on operating costs.

“This is not surprising, given that the immediacy of IMO‘s Sulphur 2020 regulation is enshrined in the name of the regulation itself, while the time is fast approaching for owners to make a decision on the respective merits of Ballast Water Management Convention compliance solutions.

“Shipping and its regulators have demonstrated their ongoing commitment to improving the industry’s carbon footprint, but it is clear that this will come at a price, as will the continuing drive towards greater innovation and technical excellence. A cleaner, greener and more efficient shipping industry will ultimately impact favourably on both operating costs and investor appetite. But, perversely, the process of attaining environmental and technical proficiency will add to such costs in the shorter term.

“Experienced owners and managers are well-used to optimising operating cost efficiencies, with one respondent in the survey noting how for some years now the combination of a soft insurance market, cheaper finance and a decline in crew costs had helped to keep operating cost increases below 2% over the past eight years. Current indications are that the influence of such factors is declining and on their own they are unlikely to be enough to stay ahead of the game in the coming years.

“Finance is available for viable projects, but will not come cheap. Crew costs are likely to go up rather than down in the short term. And, perhaps most significantly of all, insurance outgoings are predicted to rise over the next two years at a rate not seen for some time. There have certainly been a number of recent indications that the prolonged soft insurance market conditions in both the commercial and mutual sector may soon start to change. The reasons for this are not entirely clear, but may involve the recent deterioration in technical performance by both the protection and indemnity clubs and hull and machinery underwriters, which could in turn lead to a firming of the rates which owners are required to pay. Then again, we have seen before how difficult it can be to make premium increases stick, particularly in the commercial market.

“Shipping faces some major challenges over the next two years as it seeks to position itself as an environmentally-aware, technically-savvy industry. It must expect fluctuations in the level of operating costs caused by a variety of factors ranging from movements in oil prices to shifts in levels of manpower, from fluctuations in the value of the dollar to the ramifications of geopolitical developments around the world. The movement in some costs is easier to map and predict than in others. The movement in others still, such as the cost of regulation, is becoming easier to predict as implementation deadlines draw ever closer. The movement in yet others, such as the cost of fighting cyber-crime, can only be guessed at for the moment.

“One thing is clear. The cost of operating effectively and profitably in the modern shipping industry must be met chiefly by revenues generated from day-to-day operations. Shipping remains an optimistic industry but, if the evidence of the freight markets is to be believed, it may not be charging enough for the unique service that it provides.”


Note to editors

The BDO (formerly Moore Stephens LLP) Shipping & Transport team has extensive experience delivering accountancy, tax and advisory services to the sector worldwide.

BDO delivers key information and insights to the shipping community, including the annual OpCost report, the quarterly Shipping Confidence Survey and a host of thought leadership on topical issues, such as regulatory developments and market conditions.

https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/industries/shipping-and-transport


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Moore Stephens says ship operating costs are set to increase for 2016 and 2017

Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017, according to the latest survey by international accountant and shipping consultant Moore Stephens. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to increase most significantly in each of the two years.

The survey is based on responses from key players in the international shipping industry, predominantly shipowners and managers in Europe and Asia. Those responses revealed that vessel operating costs are expected to rise by 1.9% in 2016 and by 2.5% in 2017.

The cost of repairs and maintenance is expected to increase by 1.7% in 2016 and by 1.9% in 2017, while expenditure on spares is predicted to rise by 1.7% in 2016 and by 1.8% in 2017. The cost of drydocking expenditure, meanwhile, is predicted to increase by 1.5% and 1.8% in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

The survey revealed that the outlay on crew wages is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2016, rising to 1.8% in 2017, with other crew costs thought likely to go up by 1.2% and 1.4% respectively for the years under review.

The increase in outlay for lubricants is predicted to be 0.8% and 1.4% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, and that for stores 1.3% and 1.7%. Meanwhile, projected increases in management fees are 1.0% and 1.2% in the two years under review.

The cost of hull and machinery insurance is predicted to rise by 0.9% and 1.1% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, while for P&I insurance the projected increases are 1.1% and 1.2%.

The predicted overall cost increases for 2016 were highest in the container ship sector, where they averaged 3.3% against the overall survey increase of 1.9%. By way of contrast, predicted cost increases for 2016 in the offshore sector were just 0.2%. Container ships also headed the expected cost increases for 2017, at 3.4% compared to the overall survey average of 2.5%. Tankers featured in second place for both years at 2.5% for 2016 and 2.9% for 2017.

The mood of respondents generally was quite pragmatic, with many referencing the need to address such familiar problem areas as over-tonnaging, excessive competition, a paucity of finance, rising fuel costs and burgeoning regulation and legislation. “An even greater discrepancy is expected between operating costs and freight rates,” said one respondent. “Owners will manage to make ends meet, but barely.”

Despite the expectation of increased crew costs, one respondent predicted, “Crew wages will drop as owners look for cheaper nationalities or mixed crewing,” while another said, “Reduced global trade demand will offset pressure for higher crew salaries.” Elsewhere it was noted, “Crew costs are very much dependent on the employment of ships. The whole management process will undergo substantial restructuring, with flags and other stakeholders needing to be more pragmatic regarding MLC compliance and vessel operation.” Another respondent, meanwhile, said that sourcing good quality crew could be a problem as “many have changed profession.”

The cost of meeting regulatory requirements was high on the list of concerns cited by respondents, one of whom noted, “Operating costs will rise for technical expenses such as maintenance and repair held over from previous years, while the cost of ballast water treatment plant will have to be taken into consideration in 2017 drydocking budgets.” Another respondent pointed out, “With the Ballast Water Management (BWM) convention coming into force in 2017, drydocking costs will increase significantly, depending on the type and size of ship involved.” And yet another warned, “As the quality and reliability of machinery and equipment in general deteriorates, then so the cost of maintenance increases.” Elsewhere it was noted, “The new international standards for limiting NOx, SOx and PM emissions from vessels will substantially increase operating costs.”

More than one respondent emphasised the need to keep down labour and management costs without sacrificing quality. One said, “Operating budgets have been pushed further and further south, with numerous managers willing to ‘low-ball’ operating budgets to catch the eye of new and existing owners. This can cause severe risk to the operating condition of vessels, but it appears that owners are willing – or have no choice but – to accept operating budgets which include unattainable assumptions and to fund additional cash call requirements where they become necessary.”

Respondents were also asked to identify the three factors that would most affect operating costs over the next 12 months. Overall, 20% of respondents (compared to 22% in last year’s survey) identified finance costs as the most significant factor, followed by competition at 19% (down from 22% last time). Crew supply was in third place with 18% (up one percentage point on last time), followed by demand trends (up by one percentage point to 17%) and labour costs, unchanged at 13%. The cost of raw materials was cited by 11% of respondents (compared to 8% in last year’s survey) as a factor that would account for an increase in operating costs.

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “The predicted increases in ship operating costs for 2016 and 2017 compare to an average fall in operating costs in 2015 of 2.4% across all main ship types recorded in the recent Moore Stephens OpCost study. And whilst the level of predicted increases for this year and next will undoubtedly be of concern to owners and operators, seasoned market operators and observers alike will not need particularly long memories to call to mind increases of more than eight times the levels predicated for 2016. In 2008, for example, the average operating cost increase absorbed by the industry was no less than 16%. Meanwhile, one year ago, expectations of operating cost increases in 2016 were 2.8% on average, so the fall in that expectation to 1.9% is of note.

“It is some time since crew wages failed to register the highest level of predicted cost increases in our survey, but such was the case with the forecasts for 2016, where repairs and maintenance costs headed the list, together with spares. This may be due to a number of factors, including the need to commit to repairs and maintenance deferred in earlier years, and the opportunity to do so at a time when the alternative may be to struggle to compete in a difficult economic and industry climate.

“Repairs and maintenance also topped the predicted operating cost increases for 2017, at 1.9%, ahead of crew wages, drydocking and spares, all at 1.8%. This is not a surprise given predicted increases in global steel prices and the fact that regulation and legislation, mandated and enforced mainly by IMO and Port State Control respectively, are now so tight in terms of both safety and environmental preparedness and responsibility. Above all, shipping needs safe ships and safety-minded crews to stay afloat, and both come with a heavy price-tag.

“One highly influential factor behind the anticipated rise in drydocking costs, most notably in 2017, is the entry into force of the Ballast Water Management Convention in September 2017, before which date some owners may choose to put their ships into drydock to ready them for the new legislation.

“The anticipated rise in crew wages and other crew costs, meanwhile, is arguably lower than anticipated, and there was indeed a feeling on the part of some respondents that, despite the entry into force of the Maritime Labour Convention 2006, wages could stabilise this year or even go down, due largely to the combination of a reduction in global trade and wider recourse to cheaper, less experienced manning alternatives.

“Shipping faces a number of potentially costly compliance responsibilities, including the imposition of an 0.5% global cap on sulphur emissions with effect from 2020. Other operating issues include predicted increases in the price of fuel, albeit from comparatively low levels, as OPEC looks to reduce oil production levels. This will have a knock-on effect on lube oil costs.

“Shipping is an industry suffering from an imbalance in supply and demand, illustrated by the chronic overcapacity in many trades, never mind that BIMCO recently reported that the shipbuilding sector faces its lowest level of newbuildings for 20 years. But it is an industry with a guaranteed future, witness the recent decision of lMO to select ‘Shipping: Indispensable to the World’ as its theme for World Maritime Day 2016. Just how healthy that future will be depends on the ability to generate sustainable profits after operating costs have been met.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 657 offices of independent member firms in 106 countries, employing 27,613 people and generating revenues in 2015 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

RINA develops new rules for offshore platforms

Italy’s RINA Services has responded to the challenges of life extension and new regulatory regimes by completely updating its Rules for the Classification of Fixed Offshore Platforms. The new rules and guidelines will be published in May 2015 and will cover classification, certification and verification of fixed offshore oil and gas platforms.

Andrea Bombardi, Head of the Energy Department, RINA Services, says, “The rules and guidance provide a comprehensive guide to classification, certification and verification. They are a cradle-to-grave framework for the structural and process safety of the entire platform. They build on RINA’s experience with offshore platforms in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, Indian and Atlantic oceans and the Caspian Sea. The new rules facilitate life extension, reduce downtime caused by inspection and maintenance and give owners more choices and control over their design, operation and maintenance strategies.”

Original design, fabrication, installation, structural assessment, topside process certification, life extension assessment and de-commissioning are all covered.

Environmental protection is central to the new rules which have been developed with the aim of significantly reducing the risk of accidents and environmental damage.

Platform designers and operators can choose from and mix three approaches: classification, certification and verification.

Under each of the approaches RINA’s rules now allow for Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD), a probabilistic approach to structural assessment. International standards incorporated include API RP 2A and the ISO 19900 series.

The rules set out clear guidelines and requirements for assessing fatigue and corrosion issues to determine what must be done to allow platforms to continue to operate beyond their design life. The life extension approach incorporates Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) and risk-based maintenance planning. RBI can provide significant economic benefits for operators by better targeting of inspection and maintenance resources and reduced downtime.

RBI and monitoring and measurement in service are included in the requirements and guidance for topside process certification or verification.

Says Bombardi, “The new rules provide all parties with clear pathways and choices between all the most modern techniques and technology for the design, fabrication, installation, operation, life extension and de-commissioning of offshore fixed platforms.”

RINA Services S.p.A. is the RINA group company active in classification, certification, inspection and testing services. RINA is a multi-national group which delivers verification, certification, conformity assessment, marine classification, environmental enhancement, product testing, site and vendor supervision, training and engineering consultancy across a wide range of industries and services. RINA operates through a network of companies covering Marine, Energy, Infrastructures & Construction, Transport & Logistics, Food & Agriculture, Environment & Sustainability, Finance & Public Institutions and Business Governance. With a turnover of over 294 million Euros in 2013, over 2,500 employees, and 163 offices in 57 countries worldwide, RINA is recognized as an authoritative member of key international organizations and an important contributor to the development of new legislative standards.        

For a photo of a fixed platform classed by RINA go to http://bit.ly/1FCPnZb or e mail john@merlinco.com

For more information:

Giulia Faravelli

Media Relations Manager RINA

+39 010 5385505

giulia.faravelli@rina.org

Victoria Silvestri

Media Relations RINA

+39 010 5385555

victoria.silvestri@rina.org