Shipping confidence dips but investment appetite remains undimmed

Shipping confidence dipped slightly in the three months to end-November 2018, according to the latest Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents fell to 6.0 out of a maximum score of 10.0, compared to the 6.3 recorded in August 2018.

Confidence on the part of all main categories of respondent was down, with the exception of brokers, where the rating increased from 4.9 to 5.2. Owners’ confidence fell to 6.4 from 6.8, which was originally the second highest achieved by this category of respondent in the life of the survey. The confidence rating for managers, meanwhile, was down from 6.2 to 6.0 and that for charterers from 7.0 to 6.8. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating for all respondents of 6.8 out of 10.0.

Confidence was down in Europe, from 6.2 to 6.1, and in North America, from 6.8 to 5.2, but held steady in Asia at 6.3, equalling the highest rating achieved over the past 12 months.

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged at 5.5 out of a maximum score of 10.0. Owners’ confidence was down from 6.5 to 6.3, but that for charterers was up from 4.0 to 6.6. Expectations of major investments were up in Asia from 6.1 to 6.2, but down in Europe from 5.3 to 5.2.

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was up from 59% to 67%. The figure for owners was up from 70% to 71%, while the figures for charterers and managers were up from 50% to 80%, and from 45% to 63% respectively. The rating for brokers was unchanged at 71%.

Competition, identified by 21% of respondents, overtook demand trends (20%) as the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, with finance costs (16%) in third place.

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was up by seven percentage points on the previous survey to 60%, while those expecting lower rates was up from 9% to 12%. In the dry bulk sector, expectations of rate increases were unchanged at 38%, accompanied by a four percentage point increase to 15% in the numbers anticipating lower rates. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates, meanwhile, fell by one percentage point to 25%, compared with 24% anticipating lower rates. Net freight rate sentiment in the tanker sector was +48, in dry bulk +23, and container ships +1.

In a stand-alone question, 24% of respondents said they expected the price differential between high-sulphur fuel oil and IMO-compliant low-sulphur fuel oil at 1 January 2020 to be between $250 and $324 per metric tonne. 23% put the figure at between $175 and $249, while 18% estimated it at between $325 and $399. 12% thought the cost differential would be between $100 and $174.

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says: “It is disappointing to close the year with a small downward tick in confidence. But shipping is nothing if not volatile, and there will always be ups and downs. We should not forget, either, that it was in 2018 that confidence reached a four-year high.

“It is encouraging to see that the appetite for new investment was not deterred by the drop in confidence. New investment is something that will clearly be needed moving forward, not least to fund expenditure on the technology necessary to achieve compliance with existing and evolving regulatory requirements, and this against a backdrop of rising finance costs over the coming year.

“It is noteworthy that almost a quarter of our survey respondents thought the price differential between high-sulphur fuel and IMO-compliant low-sulphur fuel come 1 January 2020 would be between $30 and $100 per metric tonne more than it is at present.

“Increased costs are inevitable. Increased earnings are essential.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 614 offices of independent member firms in 112 countries, employing 30,168 people and generating revenues in 2017 of $2.9 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk/shipping-transport

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence at highest level for three-and-a-half years

Shipping confidence held steady at its highest rating in the past three-and-a-half years in the three months to end-November 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents was unchanged at the level of 6.2 out of 10.0 recorded in the previous survey in August 2017. Confidence on the part of charterers was significantly up, from 4.7 to 7.7, the highest rating recorded for this category of respondent since the survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating of 6.8. Managers (up from 5.8 to 6.1) were also more optimistic, while brokers’ confidence was unchanged at 6.3. The rating for owners, however, fell from 6.5 to 6.4. Confidence levels were down in Asia, from 6.4 to 5.7, and unchanged in Europe and North America, at 6.3 and 5.8 respectively.

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down from 5.4 to 5.3 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence, however, was up from 4.0 to 6.2. Expectations on the part of owners and brokers were up from 5.8 to 5.9 and from 4.4 to 5.3 respectively, but down from 5.4 to 5.3 for managers. Asian respondents (down from 5.9 to 5.0) were less confident in this regard, but in North America the rating was up from 4.9 to 5.4. In Europe, expectations held steady at 5.2.

Although overall expectations of making major investments over the next 12 months were marginally down on the three-year high recorded in the previous survey, several respondents saw encouraging signs of recovery, and potential for further improvement, particularly in the dry bulk sector. One respondent said: “Undeniably, things are a little better, but there is not such a significant improvement that we can break out the champagne and celebrate a recovery.”

59% of respondents expected finance costs to increase over the coming year, up from 50% last time to equal the highest figure since October 2008. Owners’ expectations were up from 48% to 54%, while the increase for charterers was from 67% to 83%, and for brokers from 42% to 60%. Managers, meanwhile, recorded a fall from 62% to 61%.

Despite a fall from 27% to 23%, demand trends continued to be the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months followed by competition and finance costs. One respondent said: “Shipping continues to be volatile and unstable, with an oversupply of tonnage, and new finance continuing to pour in, while geopolitical issues and new regulations are causing disruption.”

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was down by 1% on the previous survey to 44%, while there was a one percentage-point fall, to 13%, in those anticipating lower rates. There was a six percentage-point fall, to 50%, in the numbers expecting higher rates in the dry bulk sector, and a five percentage-point increase to 12% in the numbers anticipating lower rates. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates dropped by four percentage points to 36%, while there was a two percentage-point fall, to 15%, in those anticipating lower container ship rates.

Net sentiment was positive in all the main tonnage categories. It was unchanged in the tanker market at +31, but down in the dry bulk market from +49 to +38, and in the container ship sector from +23 to +21.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to estimate where the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate would stand in 12 months’ time. 35% put the figure at 1.50%, with 24% opting for 1.75%. While 6% of respondents thought the figure would be 2.00%, 19% opted for 1.25%. Levels of 1.00% and less than 1.00% were each cited by 8% of all respondents, just 1% of whom expected the rate to be more than 2.00%. One respondent said: “Increased economic uncertainty, relations with North Korea, and Iran trade restrictions are among the factors which will increase the risk level in the market and lead to higher interest rates.” Another simply said: “Rates will continue to rise until there is a market correction.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “Confidence is at its highest level for three-and-a-half years, testament to the industry’s remarkable durability.

“Charterers are leading the way in terms of improved confidence and appetite for new investment. There is optimism in the dry bulk trades, and evidence of continuing improved confidence in the gas sector. The Baltic Dry Index, meanwhile, has risen by over 50% in the past six months, and net sentiment in all three main tonnage categories remains positive.

“Not all our respondents were upbeat and uncertainty persists, for example, over how and when to comply with the Ballast Water Management Convention and the true extent of cyber-crime. But the portents, overall, are encouraging.

“A slowdown in newbuilding activity has started to redress the imbalance in supply and demand, and that should be reflected in improved freight rates. There is an appetite for investment, and finance is available. The shipping recovery might not yet be fully under way, but 2017 may come to be regarded as the year when the downward spiral was halted.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence continues to edge upwards

Shipping confidence reached its highest rating in the past three years in the three months to end-August 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the survey was up slightly from the 6.1 out of 10.0 recorded in the previous survey in May 2017 to a three-year high of 6.2. The improved rating was attributable mainly to increased confidence on the part of owners, up from 6.1 to 6.5. Confidence levels on the part of brokers, meanwhile, fell from 6.4 to 6.3, while managers and charterers recorded more substantial drops – from 6.2 to 5.8 and from 6.4 to 4.7 respectively, the lowest levels in both cases since May 2016. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

Confidence levels were significantly up in Asia from 5.6 to 6.4, their highest level since May 2014. Confidence was also up in Europe, from 6.2 to 6.3, but down in North America, from 6.4 to 5.8.

Despite familiar concerns about excess tonnage capacity in many trades and continuing uncertainty over Brexit, several respondents saw reasons for optimism over the coming 12 months, not least as a result of what one described as “some green shoots of a relatively broad-based rebound in economic activity.” This helped maintain, at a three-year high, expectations of major investments being made over the next 12 months. Concern, however, persisted over political instability, the incipient cost of increased legislation, and the probable entry into the market of low-cost newbuildings.

One respondent said: “The future of the maritime industry will certainly be interesting, but will it also be enjoyable?”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged from the previous survey at 5.4 out of a maximum possible score of 10.0. This represents the highest level achieved since August 2014, and this despite a slight fall this time (from 5.9 to 5.8) in the expectations of owners, and a much larger one (from 6.3 to 4.0) by charterers. The expectations of respondents in Asia were up, from 5.1 to 5.9, but down in Europe, from 5.4 to 5.2.

As was the case in the May 2017 survey, 50% of respondents expected finance costs to increase over the coming year. Owners’ expectations were unchanged at 48%, but both managers and charterers (where the figures were up from 57% to 62% and from 57% to 67%, respectively) were anticipating dearer finance. Brokers were alone among the main categories of respondent in recording a fall (from 63% to 42%) in the numbers expecting finance costs to go down.

Demand trends, cited by 27% of respondents, continued to be the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, followed by competition (17%) and tonnage supply (15%), the latter displacing finance costs in third place. One respondent said: “Confidence is impaired by the inexperience of investment houses resulting in over-liquidity in the market, which feels that it has to spend just for the sake of it – a ‘greed-eats-brain’ mentality.”

The number of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was up on the previous survey, from 32% to 45%, while there was a 2% fall, to 14%, in those anticipating lower tanker rates. Meanwhile, although there was a two percentage-point fall, to 56%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, this was still the second-highest figure in three-and-a-half years. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates dropped by six percentage points to 40%, while there was a five percent increase, to 17%, in those anticipating lower container ship rates.

Net sentiment was positive in all the main tonnage categories, and up in the tanker market from +16 in May 2017 to +31 this time. There were meanwhile small declines in net sentiment in the dry bulk and container ship trades, from +50 to +49 and from +34 to +23 respectively.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to rank in order of priority what they considered to be the most significant new sources of finance for shipping over the next 12 months. Bank finance emerged as the first choice of 27% of respondents, followed by private equity (18%). Lease finance (14%) featured in third place, one percentage point ahead of shareholder funds. One respondent said: “Banks are being a lot tougher with owners, and it is good to see the demise of the CV and KG systems which generally did little to help the long-term viability of the industry.” Another observed: “For good owners, there is still capital available. But the worry is for the second and third-rung owners.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transports, says: “Another three months, and another rise in confidence in the shipping industry, albeit a small one. Confidence has been increasing steadily over the past 15 months, and industry players are more confident of making a major investment over the coming year than they have been at any time in the past three years. Moreover, net sentiment in all three main tonnage categories is positive, having almost doubled in the tanker sector over the past quarter.

“This welcome boost in confidence comes at a difficult time for the industry, beset by overtonnaging in many trades, the current and impending cost of regulatory compliance, and more widely by geo-political pressures. Clearly, shipping still has a lot to offer existing and new investors alike, both traditional and external.

“To some extent, success in the shipping industry is a question of being in the right place at the right time. But there is a lot of skill, knowledge and experience involved, too. It is good to see that confidence is still on the increase. They do say that it’s the hope that kills you but, in truth, the lack of it is likely to be far more damaging.”

To download a copy of the survey report please visit the Moore Stephens website:
https://www.moorestephens.co.uk/news-views/september-2017/shipping-confidence-continues-to-edge-upwards

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence hits three-year high

Shipping confidence reached its equal highest rating in the past three years in the three months to end-May 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the survey was up to 6.1 out of 10.0 from the 5.6 recorded in the previous survey in February 2017. Increased confidence was recorded by all main categories of respondent to the survey, which launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

In the case of brokers, the confidence rating rose from 4.6 to 6.4, while for owners the increase was from 5.6 to 6.1. Confidence on the part of charterers and managers, meanwhile, was up from 5.9 to 6.4, and from 6.0 to 6.2 respectively. Confidence levels were unchanged in Asia at 5.6, but up in Europe, from 5.5 to 6.2, and in North America, from 6.1 to 6.4.

A number of respondents expressed cautious optimism about the industry’s fortunes over the next 12 months, based largely on perceived increased levels of ship demolition and a rationalisation of over-ambitious newbuilding plans. This helped increase expectations of major investments being made over the next 12 months. Concern persisted, however, over political uncertainty, overtonnaging in certain trades, depressed oil prices and a potential dearth of quality seafarers.

One respondent said, “Shipping people are eternally optimistic, with one week of good news seeming to help them forget eight terrible years of hardship and financial loss.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was up from 4.9 out of 10.0 in the previous survey to 5.4, the highest level since August 2014. There was increased confidence on the part of all major respondents, in the case of charterers up to a level of 6.3 from 5.8 in February 2017. Owners and managers, meanwhile, each registered a confidence level of 5.9, up from 5.1 and 5.6 respectively last time. Confidence on the part of brokers was up from 3.4 to 4.4.

50% of respondents expected finance costs to increase over the coming year, compared to 54% in the previous survey. Owners’ expectations fell from 57% to 48%, while managers were also down, from 61% to 57%. More brokers and charterers, however, anticipated costlier finance – 63% of brokers (against 41% last time) and 57% of charterers (compared to 47% in February 2017). “The financial support needed to boost the markets is not yet at expected levels,” noted one respondent, “but we believe that the situation will improve in the coming months as demand increases.”

Demand trends, cited by 26% of respondents, continued to be the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, followed by competition (22%) and finance costs (14%). According to one respondent, “Larger companies are targeting their smaller competitors in order to minimise competition and secure a stronger position in the market.”

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months was up on the previous survey in all three main tonnage categories. In the tanker market, 32% of respondents anticipated improved rates, as opposed to 25% last time, while the number anticipating lower tanker rates fell from 28% to 16%. Meanwhile, there was a 14 percentage-point rise, to 58%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, the highest figure for three years.

In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates rose from 31% to 46%, while there was a six percentage-point fall, to 12%, in those anticipating lower container ship rates. Net sentiment was up in the tanker market from -3 in February 2017 to +16 this time, while the increases in the dry bulk and container ship trades respectively were from +33 to +50 and from +13 to +34.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to estimate the level they expected the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to be at in 12 months’ time. More than half (52%) felt the BDI would reach a level of between 1000 and 1499, while a quarter (25%) put the likely figure at between 1500 and 1999. “Healthy volumes of cargo are being moved,” said one respondent, “but there are too many ships around.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “The survey was launched in 2008, on the very cusp of one of the most protracted and severe global economic downturns, with a confidence rating of 6.8. In our latest survey, the figure stands at 6.1 which, given geopolitical, economic and industry developments, must be seen as a robust rating. Moreover, confidence today of making a major new investment is the highest it has been for almost three years. The positive sentiment on freight rates is welcome, although this must be weighed against the lows to which they have fallen and from which they must continue to recover.

“Even for an industry which is familiar with the volatile nature of international commerce, shipping’s ability to survive adversity is worthy of comment. Our latest survey found many of our respondents in watchful mode, mindful of the fact that there are still too many ships, but encouraged to believe that increased demolition and more pragmatism by industry stakeholders will help to redress this imbalance. Respondents also remain cognisant of the impact which geopolitical developments can have on shipping, and it will be instructive to see what effect all this will have on industry confidence in our next quarterly survey.”

The full survey report can be downloaded from the Moore Stephens website:
http://www.moorestephens.co.uk/news-views/june-2017/confidence-hits-three-year-high

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Optimistic charterers help boost shipping confidence to 15-month high

Shipping confidence improved for the third successive quarter in the three months to end-November 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

In November 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.6 out of 10.0, equalling the highest rating since August 2015. All main categories of respondent were more confident than in August 2016, when the overall rating was 5.4. Charterers’ confidence this time increased by 2.0 points, to 6.8, the highest figure in the life of the survey for such respondents. The confidence of owners was up from 5.3 to 5.4, of brokers from 4.5 to 5.6, and of managers from 6.0 to 6.4. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

Confidence was up in Asia, from 5.5 to 5.7, in Europe from 5.2 to 5.4, and in North America from 5.8 to 5.9.

A number of respondents felt that the bottom of the cycle had been reached and that the only way was up. Particular concern was expressed about overtonnaging, insufficient recycling, and the cost of regulatory compliance. One respondent noted, “The oversupply of tonnage will cease when the banks write down bad loans and force owners to sell for scrap,” while another said, “The weak or unlucky will fold or be gobbled up, while the strong or the lucky will grow and succeed.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged, at 4.9 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence in this regard was up from 5.0 to 6.4, equalling its highest figure since August 2013. Owners’ expectations were also up, from 4.8 to 5.0, but those of managers and brokers were down, from 5.3 to 5.2 and from 4.1 to 3.8 respectively. According to one respondent, “It is hard to see how major investment to meet environmental regulations can be justified in the current climate.”

The number of respondents expecting finance costs to increase over the coming year rose from 35% to 53%, the highest level for five years. Owners’ expectations in this regard rose from 31% to 58%, their highest level since May 2011. The figures for brokers and managers were also up, from 47% to 53% and from 30% to 52%, respectively. Charterers were alone in not anticipating any increase in finance costs. “Major investment will be required over the next few years to meet increasingly stringent environmental regulations,” said one respondent, “at a time when earnings are on the floor and bank finance is hard to come by.”

Competition is expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, just ahead of demand trends, followed by finance costs and tonnage supply. One respondent said, “If demand remains weak, we don’t anticipate any improvement in the shipping markets over the next five years, particularly for dry bulk cargoes.”

The number of respondents expecting higher rates in the tanker market over the next 12 months rose by ten percentage points to 33%, the highest figure since August 2015, while the number anticipating lower tanker rates fell from 37% to 24%. Meanwhile, there was a three percentage-point rise, to 41%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates rose from 22% to 27%, but there was a five percentage-point increase, to 21%, in those anticipating lower rates. The net sentiment in the tanker markets was +9, while it was +31 in the dry bulk markets and +6 in the container ship trades.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked what they considered would be the most important source of funding for the installation of Ballast Water Management (BWM) systems by shipowners. Overall, on a weighted average basis, 21% of respondents felt that shipowner equity (shareholder funds) would provide the source of funding. Next came bank finance, at 19%, BWM system manufacturers (15%), shipyards (12%) and other non-bank finance (10%). One respondent said, “Financing BWM is almost impossible. Owners have no money for it.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “This is the third successive increase in shipping confidence recorded by our survey. So despite overtonnaging, weak freight rates, declining demand, insufficient recycling, Brexit, Syria, Trump, despite everything, shipping is still looking up, rather than down. This is not to deny the reality of today’s difficult market, or the sluggish economic climate. But it does say much for the strength of shipping’s backbone and the quality of its mettle.

“Those who can point to a long history in shipping will be better placed to gauge the severity and longevity of the current downturn than those with a shorter pedigree in the industry. But both will need access to finance and to other resources in order to meet the challenges which lie ahead. Not the least of these is the ongoing regulatory environmental compliance programme, even if implementation of the BWM convention may be caveated with potential delay and amendment for a little while longer.

“Many of our respondents felt that things can only get better. They are probably right. But for that to happen, freight rates will have to go up. Perhaps it is safer to say for the moment that, if we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 657 offices of independent member firms in 106 countries, employing 27,613 people and generating revenues in 2015 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk.


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP, London
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Moore Stephens reports second successive quarterly rise in shipping confidence

Shipping confidence, notably on the part of charterers and managers, improved for the second successive quarter in the three months to end-August 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

In August 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.4 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). This is an improvement on the 5.1 recorded in May 2016, and the highest rating for the past nine months of the survey, which was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

Although confidence on the part of owners was down this time from 5.7 to 5.3, charterers (up from 4.0 to 4.8), managers (up from 5.1 to 6.0) and brokers (up from 4.3 to 4.5) were all more optimistic than in May 2016. Geographically, confidence was up in Asia, from 5.2 to 5.5, and in North America from 5.0 to 5.8, with sentiment in Europe unchanged at 5.2.

Overcapacity was the dominant theme of comments from respondents to the survey. “Scrapping is still not sufficient to cope with newbuilding deliveries and the general supply-side overhang. Every new order will prolong the crisis,” said one, while another noted, “If we all stay away from ordering relatively cheap tonnage today, supply and demand will soon recover.”

Conditions in the dry bulk market also occupied the thoughts of large numbers of respondents. “Implementation of the Ballast Water Management Convention will most likely solve overcapacity,” said one, “but it will also cause a bloodbath among owners.” Another remarked, “Growth is non-existent, so there is no hope there,” while another still simply said, “We have lost confidence in the dry bulk market.” Other respondents were slightly more optimistic, with one noting, “We expect the dry bulk markets to improve significantly during the course of 2017.”

Concerns about the global economy were uppermost in the minds of a number of respondents, one of whom neatly encapsulated a number of the main issues currently impacting the shipping industry by noting, “Brexit, Trump, supply overhang, consolidation, demolition, bankruptcies, and the low risk appetite of banks for shipping and shipping stocks seem to be the main topics to follow for the next 12 months or so. We would be pleasantly surprised if this were to change.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged on the previous survey, with a rating of 4.9 on a scale of 1 to 10. The confidence of charterers in this respect was up significantly, from 4.1 to 5.0, while brokers also recorded a small increase, from 3.5 to 4.1. Owners and managers, however, were less confident in this regard than they were three months ago, dropping from 5.7 to 4.8 and from 5.4 to 5.3 respectively. One respondent said, “Massive investment, mainly from inexperienced funds and private entrepreneurs, has resulted in an oversupply of funding in some trades.”

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the next 12 months was down by six percentage points, to 35%. There was a noticeable fall in the numbers of owners (down by six percentage points to 31%), managers (down by 19 percentage points to 30%) and charterers (down by two percentage points to 27%) anticipating higher finance costs. One respondent said, “Shipping banks need to be more realistic about pricing if they want to sell debt as a means of reducing their exposure to the sector.”

Demand trends, competition and tonnage supply featured again as the top three factors cited by respondents as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12. Demand trends, which were up by two percentage points to 26%, remained in first place, with competition (down by three percentage points to 20%) in second. Tonnage supply, unchanged at 16%, occupied joint-third spot with finance costs, which were up by one percentage point. Operating costs, up by one percentage point to 10%, featured in fifth place, ahead of fuel costs (5%) and regulation (4%). One respondent said, “We have read many, many times that we have reached the bottom of the cycle, only for a lower offer to appear in the market a few hours later.”

The number of respondents expecting higher charter rates in the tanker market over the next 12 months was unchanged at 23%, while the numbers anticipating lower tanker rates rose by three percentage points to 37%. Meanwhile, there was a five percentage-point drop, from 43% down to 38% in the numbers of like mind in the dry bulk trades, and a one percentage point increase, to 12%, in the numbers anticipating lower dry bulk rates. In the container ship sector, the number of respondents expecting higher rates was up by one percentage point to 22%, while there was a fall, from 20% to 16%, in the numbers anticipating lower rates.

The net sentiment in the tanker markets was -14, as opposed to +26 in the dry bulk markets and +6 in the container ship trades.

One respondent said, “Too many dry cargo ships have been built, and we are not confident that the freight market will improve sufficiently to justify investment, especially from people who have no previous experience of shipping.” Another remarked, “A whole class of container ships is essentially obsolete following the opening of the widened Panama Canal.”

Respondents were asked a stand-alone question about the perceived barriers to women playing a greater role in the shipping industry. Overall, 31% of respondents placed ‘workplace attitude or corporate culture’ in the top five factors in this regard. ‘Travel implications in day-to-day roles’, meanwhile, was a top five factor for 21% of respondents, while ‘lack of career progression’ was placed third, at 19%. One respondent said, “There are no barriers. It is up to the individual to pursue her career with determination and strength of character.” Another, however, complained that, “The culture in the industry is male chauvinist.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “Given the challenges currently facing the industry, the continuing uncertainty surrounding the worldwide economy, and the ongoing level of global geopolitical instability, it is encouraging to see an increase in shipping confidence for the second successive quarter. Confidence is now at its highest level for nine months, which says much for the resilience of the shipping industry.

“Concern persists about too much tonnage and not enough recycling. Restoring the correct balance to tonnage supply and demand is a long-term undertaking, the complexities and diverse nature of which are arguably well captured by the respondent who noted, ‘We have divided interests. For our customers, we hope that nobody orders any vessels for the next 12 months. For us, we hope that people do, because we need newbuildings’.”

“Given the pace of technological development, the continuing imperative to improve the industry’s environmental footprint, and the exigencies of escalating regulation, the industry will always need newbuildings. The trick is to make sure that there is room – and work – for them in a market which encourages responsible competition and allows a sensible margin for profit. That requires, among other things, an increase in ship demolition levels which, given the recent decline in dry bulk recycling and the perceived impossibility of recycling enough container ships, seems unlikely.

“The maintenance of sensible levels of competition is also a prerequisite for a healthy and profitable shipping industry. Since the survey was launched in 2008, respondents have consistently identified competition as one of the main factors likely to influence their performance most significantly. All trade sectors thrive on responsible competition, which works as an incentive to progress and profitability. But irresponsible competition can have the opposite effect, witness the respondent who referred to ‘those who focus on how to trick, treat and corrupt under the broad term ‘competition’.”

“Perversely, the collapse of Hanjin Shipping Co., which occurred after our survey was concluded, may have a positive effect on overtonnaging, although nobody would have been looking for such an extreme solution. Hanjin’s collapse has sent shockwaves through the industry which will continue to reverberate for many months to come. It may also give pause for thought to those who see the future of container shipping as ever bigger and more diverse alliances.

“Equally perverse is the very real possibility that final ratification of the Ballast Water Management Convention may have a positive effect on overcapacity. It might not be correct to say that this development has sent shockwaves through the shipping sector, because the industry has known for some time that it has been coming, and has been pondering how best to meet its requirements and how to fund the considerable cost of so doing. It matters not whether it was the ratification by Finland which finished the uncertainty about implementation, or whether it was Panama’s huge fleet which activated the green light. A shock is no less shocking for being expected, and the fact is that the convention will enter into force in September 2017. It will be instructive to see how shipping deals with the issue, and from what level of preparedness, the extent of which will become clearer over the coming months.

“A stand-alone question in our survey asked respondents to name the biggest barriers to women playing a greater role in today’s shipping industry. More than 65% identified ‘workplace or corporate culture’ as the number one barrier. James Brown famously sang, ‘This is a Man’s World’, although not everybody remembers that the self-styled Godfather of Soul went on to say, “but it wouldn’t be nothing without a woman or a girl’. It is beyond any reasonable measure of doubt that shipping will need the efforts of every man and woman working within the industry today to tackle both current challenges and those which lie in wait.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 657 offices of independent member firms in 106 countries, employing 27,613 people and generating revenues in 2015 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Moore Stephens says shipping will remain volatile and indispensable in 2016

International accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens says it expects the shipping industry to remain volatile and indispensable in 2016.

Moore Stephens shipping partner Richard Greiner says, “The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult to find in shipping today, but the portents for 2016 are not all bad.

“The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates for everything from pins to elephants, dropped to an all-time low in December last year, and has fallen still further this month.. Most people blamed this on China for not consuming as much of anything as it did previously. Nevertheless, the dry bulk sector will probably have to reduce the newbuilding orderbook and increase ship recycling in 2016 in order to restore the balance.

“The same is true of the container ship sector, where reducing capacity is seen as the best way to drive up rates. CMA CGM's move to buy NOL, meanwhile, although subject to regulatory approval, is an indication of further consolidation. It would be no surprise to see more still in 2016.

“By comparison, the tanker markets enjoyed a stronger year in 2015, not least because of falling oil prices. In contrast, this has presented major challenges in the offshore maritime space. Some experts are predicting a slide to $20 a barrel in 2016, which may be just as well since a recent decision of the English High Court left a shipowner claiming that it had been asked to pay twice for the same fuel from bankrupt OW Bunkers. In 2016, owners will be monitoring a possible appeal against this decision to the Supreme Court, while keeping an eye on disputes elsewhere.

“Shipping will remain volatile and uncertain throughout 2016. Operating costs will go up, as will the cost of regulation - for example, implementation of the Ballast Water Management Convention. The threat from cyber security will rise. Interest in refinancing, as a means of getting cash out of the business, is likely to increase, as are calls for accelerated ship recycling and a cap on newbuildings. The effect of geopolitical developments should not be under-estimated, while speculation about the UK’s planned Brexit referendum in 2017 will add spice to the pot.

“Now is nevertheless a good time to invest if you have access to finance and a credible business plan, preferably one with the badge of green approval. It is no coincidence that IMO recently endorsed a proposal to adopt ‘Shipping: Indispensable to the World’ as the theme for World Maritime Day 2016. You don’t need to be an accordion player to take heart from that.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 103 countries, employing 26,290 people and generating revenues in 2014 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

Moore Stephens reports small decline in shipping confidence

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell in the three months to November 2015, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.6 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). This compares to the 5.9 recorded in August 2015. The survey was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

All main categories of respondent recorded a fall in confidence this time, most notably charterers (down from 6.5 to 5.5). The confidence of managers was down from 6.4 to 5.8, that of brokers from 5.2 to 4.6, and that of owners from 5.8 to 5.7. Geographically, confidence was up in Asia, from 5.8 to 6.0, but down in Europe from 5.9 to 5.4, and in North America from 6.3 to 5.7.

Many respondents expressed continuing concern about overtonnaging and excess shipbuilding capacity. One observed, “The over-ordering of ships by investment funds, together with the huge shipbuilding capacity created by China, are not conducive to an orderly market, with the result that shipping investments remain very risky.” Another noted, “As a result of excess shipbuilding capacity and the low cost of finance, shipping markets have been suffering from over-supply for years. We can only hope for strong growth in demand to improve the situation.” The cost of regulatory compliance, meanwhile, was referenced by a number of respondents, with one commenting, “Environmental regulations will continue to drive costs and uncertainty.”

Looking ahead, one respondent said, “2016 and 2017 are going to be tough,” while another remarked, “Unless and until the global economy starts to improve, things are unlikely to change significantly.” Elsewhere, however, it was noted, “Major economies are stabilising and improving, so global trade will respond, which will lead to an improvement in the shipping markets.” In similar vein, another respondent said, “Shipping will always be a major part of world business, and will retain its importance as a result of recent political developments.”

A number of respondents commented on the effect of current low oil prices, with one emphasising, “The precipitous fall in oil prices has poured cold water over LNG-fuelled ship design. While the application of LNG makes sense from an environmental point of view, the additional capital expenditure is not justified unless oil prices go up to previous levels.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, from 5.3 to 5.2. Charterers, managers and brokers were less confident in this regard than they were three months ago, but the confidence of owners was up, from 5.5 to 5.7. One respondent said, “The sooner funds that have no clue how shipping is run leave the market, the better. Shipping should be run by shipowners and not fund managers.” Elsewhere it was noted, “A lot of shipowners are like investors in the stock market. Even though common sense tells them they may be making a bad investment, they would rather take the risk than miss out on a possible upturn in the market.” Yet another respondent said, “Smart owners wait until rates are low and buy used ships at low prices.”

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the next 12 months was down by one percentage point on last time, to 47 %. The number of owners anticipating dearer finance fell by 18 percentage points to 35 %, but the number of charterers of like mind rose to 67 %, from 50 % previously. One respondent said, “We need a more realistic approach from those banks which are helping to keep zombie companies afloat.”

Demand trends, competition and port congestion featured as the top three factors cited by respondents as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months. The numbers were down by four percentage points (to 21 %) for competition, which was pushed into second place by demand trends, where there was a one percentage point increase, to 24 %, in the figures. Port congestion, up 15 percentage points to a new survey high of 17 %, featured in third place, followed by finance costs, in respect of which there was a four percentage point drop to 14 %. Regulation (up five percentage points to 9 %) featured in fifth place, followed by operating costs (down five percentage points to 6 %). Fuel costs featured as a significant factor for just 4 % of respondents, compared to a survey high of 16 % in May 2011.

One respondent said, “Excessive regulation makes control of costs even more difficult. Furthermore, what is the point of creating rules when international authorities cannot agree how to apply them, such as in the case of ballast water management?”

There was a fall in the number of respondents anticipating higher freight rates in the tanker, dry bulk and container ship sectors compared to the figures for August 2015. The net sentiment was nevertheless positive (+7) in the tanker market and in the dry bulk sector (+16), although negative (-5) for container ships.

One respondent said, “Many tanker owners are guided more by hope than by economics. When statistics indicate a tonnage shortage in two years’ time, they order ships now in the hope that freight rates will be higher once the ships have been built. But if other owners do the same, overcapacity will result in low rates and a fall in vessel values – a lose-lose situation.”

Elsewhere, it was noted, “Overall confidence in the state of the dry bulk market is currently very low, and any hope of the start of a recovery is at least 12 months away.” In the container ship sector, meanwhile,
one respondent commented, “Many owners of container ships seem to order new tonnage whether it makes economic sense or not, just to maintain market share.”

Moore Stephens shipping partner Richard Greiner says, “The inherent volatility of the shipping industry is part of its appeal to investors, for whom there is seldom any reward without risk. But confidence historically fluctuates more in a volatile market than in a stable one, and shipping is nothing but volatile at the moment. The small drop in industry confidence levels over the three months to end-November is therefore not a great surprise.

“Global unrest in general, and in particular the crisis involving Syria, does nothing to help confidence in industries such as shipping, which operate across international borders. Neither does the migrant crisis in Europe, which has escalated significantly in recent months, nor the Paris bombings. Shipping must expect to suffer the downside of such incidents just as, in better times, it can expect to benefit from positive geopolitical changes.

“Informed awareness and the ability to react in a timely manner are the best defence against external influences on the industry. But what of those other inhibitors of shipping confidence, which might be said to be of the industry’s own making? Firstly, there is the over-arching problem of excess tonnage. There are too many ships to carry the available cargoes. Doubts also persist about the level of newbuilding orders at a time when the market does not look to be in a good position to sustain them.

“Only increased ship recycling and rationalisation of business plans can effectively address these issues, and the need to take a proactive approach is borne out by the current state of the markets. The tanker market is producing comparatively good earnings at the moment, but its fortunes are too closely linked to the price of oil for anybody to accurately predict how long this will last. Expectations of improved rates over the next 12 months in the three main tonnage categories covered by the survey are down. In the case of the dry bulk sector, such expectations are at their lowest since August 2012, while in the container ship market one has to go back to October 2008 to find a lower figure. Indeed, our respondents recorded an overall negative sentiment in respect of the container ship market.

“This paints a rather austere picture for the immediate future of the industry, which is also facing the burgeoning challenge of funding regulatory compliance with the imminent entry into force of the Ballast Water Management convention. But it is by no means all bad news. Operating costs fell in both 2013 and 2014, which is evidence of the application of a measure of control which shipping has not been accustomed to seeing in recent years. Meanwhile, 50 % of those shipowners who responded to our confidence survey rated at 7 out of 10 or higher the prospect of making a major investment over the next 12 months. Owners were also much more confident than they were three months ago that ship finance was going to be cheaper over the coming 12 months.

“Well-informed owners and investors are not in the habit of throwing money away on lost causes. Shipping remains a good business to be in, its continued existence assured by its singular capabilities. The outlook remains volatile, but exciting.”

The Moore Stephens Shipping Confidence Survey includes responses from key players worldwide in the international shipping industry to a targeted, web-based survey by the Moore Stephens Shipping Industry Group. Responses were received from owners, charterers, brokers, advisers, managers and others. Editors can apply for a copy of the survey by emailing chris@merlinco.com

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 103 countries, employing 26,290 people and generating revenues in 2014 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Moore Stephens says shipping confidence equals seven-year low

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to May 2015 to a level equal to the lowest rating recorded in the past seven years, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. Respondents complained predominantly about low freight rates and overtonnaging, while some expressed continuing doubts about private equity funding.

In May 2015, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.3 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high), down from 5.5 in February 2015. This equals the lowest figure recorded in the life of the survey, which was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

Charterers were the only category of main respondent to record an increase in confidence, albeit from the all-time survey low last time of 3.9. But their rating of 4.2 was still the lowest in the latest survey. The confidence of owners was down from 5.4 to 5.1, that for managers from 6.2 to 6.1, and that for brokers from 5.0 to 4.8. Geographically, confidence was down in all main areas covered the survey, with the exception of North America, where it showed a marginal increase from 5.9 to 6.0.

A number of respondents expressed the view that an upturn in market conditions was some way off. One said: “After eight years of misery, rates must go up if shipping companies are to survive. Another remarked, “Boom / bust cycles in the shipping industry usually last about seven years, which is sufficient time for any money lost to return to the market, with interest rates at, say, 6 percent. But now, because of excess liquidity in the markets and low interest rates, there is a feeling that any recovery will be a very long time coming.” Yet another respondent noted: “For as long as there is no correction in the availability of shipbuilding capacity, and for as long as outside money keeps coming in, there is no hope of an improvement in the shipping industry.” Others, however, were less downbeat, such as the respondent who said: “The aftershocks are almost over, and a recovery should get under way soon.”

The depressed state of the dry bulk sector and the effect of the entry into the market of private equity were the subjects which dominated responses to the survey, neatly encapsulated by the respondent who noted: “The remarkable acceleration of scrapping of larger bulk carriers and the conversion of many newbuildings into tankers will have a positive effect on the dry bulk market sooner than had previously been anticipated - provided, of course, that suicidal private equity has learnt its lesson and accepts that this is not an opportunity to make a quick fortune.” Another respondent said: “The problem facing shipping is the entry into the market of silly money by investors who have no idea about how the industry works and for whom any money lost is a drop in the ocean.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, from 5.1 to 5.0, the lowest figure since the 4.9 recorded in February 2012. Charterers, however, were more confident in this regard than they were three months ago. One respondent said: “The thin-to-non-existent margins at which Asian yards operate, together with undue concern about the need for new ‘green’ vessels, encourages investment in newbuildings rather than in existing tonnage. This would never happen in real estate, for example, where recession precludes additional supply for years. We are very pessimistic about shipping investment returns for many years to come.”

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the next 12 months was up by eight percentage points, from the lowest figure in the seven-year life of the survey, to 40 percent. One respondent said: “No real investor can dare to make investments in ships in the coming months.”

Demand trends, competition and tonnage supply featured as the top three factors cited by respondents as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months. The numbers for demand trends and competition were each down on last time by one percentage point, to 23 percent in the case of the former and to 20 percent for the latter. Tonnage supply, meanwhile, was up by one percentage point to 15 percent, one percentage point ahead of finance costs. Operating costs, down by one percentage point to 11 percent, featured in fifth place, followed by fuel costs, down by one percentage point to 6 percent, equalling the lowest figure recorded in this category since February 2010. One respondent said: “Only the big owners can make investments in order to be ready with good tonnage, and not be displaced by competitors, when the market recovers.”

Turning to the freight markets, there was a fall in the number of respondents anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, but expectations of improved rates in the tanker and container ship trades were up on the figures for February 2015. Overall net sentiment, based on the difference between the number of respondents who expected rates to improve and the number who thought they would deteriorate, was positive in all three main tonnage categories covered by the survey.

One respondent said: “We are experiencing the worst dry bulk market since the 1980s.” Another urged, “Tankers are not bad for the moment, but please stop ordering more ships! Will we never learn?” In the container ship sector it was noted: “There is general overcapacity, with rates collapsing and insufficient tonnage management.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping Industry Group, says: “The fact that shipping confidence has revisited the low point recorded twice before in the seven-year life of the survey underlines both the current volatility of the markets and the fragile nature of confidence itself in an industry where, little more than 12 months ago, it was at an all-time high.

“The nature of the concerns expressed by respondents to the survey comes as no surprise. Familiarity in this case breeds continuing uncertainty rather than contempt. There are no quick fixes for the likes of overtonnaging and low freight rates. The solutions, like the problems themselves, are long-term in nature, and will undoubtedly involve some pain along the way. Moreover, there is a not a one-size-fits-all solution for the industry as a whole. What is good news for some sectors is quite the opposite for others.

“Lower oil prices might be helping smaller operators to compete by virtue of reduced bunker costs, but in many respects they are bad news for the bigger players with whom they are competing. Access to finance for newbuildings in either the traditional or private equity markets is good news for owners with an eye on expansion, but bad news for those seeking investment to upgrade existing tonnage.

“Shipping has enough problems to occupy itself for the foreseeable future. But it must not take its eye off the ball when it comes to the incipient costs associated with achieving regulatory compliance, or indeed of properly managing the increasing risks which it faces on a daily basis, encompassing everything from the financial stability of counter-parties to cyber security threats.

“It is not all bad news. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has started to nudge upwards after an extended period in freefall. The tonnage supply / demand imbalance, although still unsatisfactory, is improving rather than deteriorating. There will always be a demand for shipping. Moreover, given the high operating and regulatory costs involved, and the fact that the economic and industry downturn has already claimed significant numbers of weaker companies, the shipping industry is likely to be stronger than it has been for many years once the recovery does get under way. In the meantime, it is just a question of holding one’s nerve.”

The Moore Stephens Shipping Confidence Survey includes responses from key players worldwide in the international shipping industry to a targeted, web-based survey by the Moore Stephens Shipping Industry Group. Responses were received from owners, charterers, brokers, advisers, managers and others. Editors can apply for a copy of the survey by emailing chris@merlinco.com

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 103 countries, employing 26,290 people and generating revenues in 2014 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com