Shipping confidence hits 18-month high

Confidence in the shipping industry rose in the last quarter to its highest level for 18 months, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from leading shipping adviser and accountant BDO.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the survey was 6.4 out of 10.0, compared to 5.8 Q3 2019. This is the highest rating since the same level of confidence was recorded in May 2018, and it is necessary to go back to February 2014 in order to see confidence at a higher level.

Confidence on the part of both managers and owners was up to 6.9 out of 10.0 from the levels recorded in the previous survey of 5.9 and 6.4 respectively. But confidence in the broking sector was down from 5.1 to 3.9, the lowest rating for this category of respondent since the survey was launched in May 2008. Confidence was down in Asia from 6.8 to 6.0 but up in Europe and in North America from 5.7 to 6.2 and from 4.3 to 6.8 respectively.

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the coming year was unchanged from last time at 5.5 out of 10.0. Owners’ confidence was down from 6.5 to 6.3, while that of brokers dropped from 4.4 to 2.9. Meanwhile the expectations of managers held steady at 6.1. Expectations were down in Asia and in Europe, from 6.6 to 5.7 and from 5.4 to 5.1 respectively.

The number of respondents expecting finance costs to increase over the coming year was up from 25% to 37%. Whereas 57% of managers (up from 20% last time) anticipated dearer finance over the next 12 months, just 32% of owners (albeit up from 27% last time) thought likewise.

In the freight markets, the number of respondents anticipating higher tanker rates over the coming year was up from 43% to 46%, with little or no movement in the expectations of main respondent categories compared to the previous survey. In the dry bulk sector, overall expectations of rate increases were up from 39% to 50%, and in the case of brokers alone from 20% to 71%. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates, meanwhile, rose by 10 percentage points to 29%. Net rate sentiment was positive in all three main tonnage categories.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to estimate where the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate would stand in 12 months’ time. 24% of respondents put the figure at 1.50%, while estimates of 1.75% and 1.25% were favoured by 17% and 16% of respondents respectively. 15% of respondents predicted that the rate would reach 2.00%, while 11% predicted a figure of 2.25%. Overall, 16% of respondents put the likely rate at no higher than 1.00%.

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at BDO, says, “It is not far short of six years since confidence in the industry has been higher, and appetite for investment remains steady despite volatile economic conditions. This is despite general ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and notwithstanding specific concerns about a variety of issues including Brexit and President Trump’s impeachment inquiry.

“Shipping is not for the faint-hearted, and committed long-term players remain the most likely to achieve the best returns. Our latest survey revealed an increased expectation over the next 12 months of dearer finance costs. Such costs remain one of the most significant performance-influencing factors for our respondents. But the cost of regulatory compliance is slowly gaining in importance, and will continue to do so. IMO 2020 was recently categorised by one commentator as a ‘perfect storm’ for litigators. It is also part of a much larger commitment by the shipping industry to enhancing its green credentials, and in the process becoming a more technologically advanced and environmentally responsible sector. As such, it should be eminently attractive to investors.”

Note to editors
The BDO (formerly Moore Stephens LLP) Shipping & Transport team has extensive experience delivering accountancy, tax and advisory services to the sector worldwide.

BDO delivers key information and insights to the shipping community, including the annual OpCost report, the quarterly Shipping Confidence Survey and a host of thought leadership on topical issues, such as regulatory developments and market conditions.

https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/industries/shipping-and-transport


BDO LLP operates in 17 locations across the UK, employing nearly 5,000 people offering tax, audit and assurance, and a range of advisory services. BDO LLP is the UK member firm of the BDO international network.

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Concern over trade wars impacts shipping confidence

Confidence in the shipping industry has fallen marginally over the past three months, largely as a result of ongoing concern over trade wars and increased regulation, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from leading shipping adviser and accountant BDO.

The average confidence level in the three months to May 2019 was 6.1 out of a possible maximum of 10.0. This is slightly down on the figure of 6.2 recorded in February 2019.

Confidence was up in Asia, from 5.8 to 6.0, and in North America, from 5.6 to 6.4. In Europe, meanwhile, there was a drop in overall confidence levels from 6.3 to 6.1.

The chartering sector continues to be the most volatile in terms of respondent confidence, with ratings varying between 4.7 and 7.7 during the past two years. This time, the confidence level was up to 6.2 from 6.0 three months ago. The ratings for owners and managers, meanwhile, were unchanged at 6.3 and 5.8 respectively, while the rating for brokers was down from 5.9 to 5.7.

The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating for all respondents of 6.8 out of 10.0.

According to the BDO quarterly survey, the likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the coming year was up from 5.3 to 5.4 out of 10.0. Owners’ confidence in this regard was up from 5.4 to 6.3, while the rating for charterers was 5.6 compared to the survey high of 7.3 recorded last time. The confidence of managers and brokers in this category was also down, from 5.6 to 4.8 and from 4.9 to 3.9 respectively. Expectations were up in Asia, from 5.2 to 5.5, and in Europe, from 5.3 to 5.4.

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was unchanged at 48%. The figures for owners and brokers were down, but up in the case of charterers and managers.

Demand trends were cited by 26% of respondents as the factor most likely to influence performance over the next 12 months. Competition (19%) and finance costs (13%) featured in second and third place respectively in this context.

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was up by 4 percentage points on the previous survey to 55%, with charterers (75%) leading the way. In the dry bulk sector, expectations of rate increases were down overall from 52% to 48%, with charterers the only category recording an increase in expectation levels. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates, meanwhile, rose by 9 percentage points to 35%. Net rate sentiment was positive in all three tonnage categories and noticeably improved on the last quarter for container ships.

When asked to estimate the level they expected the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to reach in 12 months’ time, 50% of respondents (compared to 36 % 12 months ago) anticipated a figure of between 1000 and 1499, while 22% (42% last time) put the likely level at between 1500 and 1999. “One could be more bullish about the BDI if there was less global tension around,” said one respondent.

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at BDO, says, “A small dip in confidence is not surprising given the recent volatility generated by the US-China trade wars, the heightened tension in the Arabian Gulf, the failure to conclude Brexit negotiations, and general political instability in many parts of the world. Markets love volatility, but it can have an adverse effect on confidence.

“Trade wars certainly formed the over-arching theme for this quarter, but they are not the only recurring topic. The cost and technical implications of complying with existing and incipient regulation was referenced on a number of occasions, typified by the respondent who noted that the high level of regulation “makes it extremely difficult to make a profit”.

“Despite the challenges the industry is facing, there are a number of positive indicators. New technology is making shipping more attractive to investors, and will moreover act as a trigger to accelerate the pace and extent of recycling. Higher freight rates should logically follow, and those who hold their nerve will ultimately benefit.”

The BDO (formerly Moore Stephens LLP) Shipping & Transport team has extensive experience delivering accountancy, tax and advisory services to the sector worldwide.

BDO delivers key information and insights to the shipping community, including the annual OpCost report, the quarterly Shipping Confidence Survey and a host of thought leadership on topical issues, such as regulatory developments and market conditions.

https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/industries/shipping-and-transport


BDO LLP
BDO LLP operates in 17 locations across the UK, employing nearly 5,000 people offering tax, audit and assurance, and a range of advisory services. BDO LLP has underlying revenues of £590m and is the UK member firm of the BDO international network.

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The BDO global network provides business advisory services in 162 countries, with 80,000 people working out of 1,600 offices worldwide. It has revenues of $9bn.
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Shipping confidence up despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

Confidence in the shipping industry has risen in the last three months despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from leading shipping adviser and accountant BDO.

The average confidence level rose to 6.2 out of maximum score of 10.0 this quarter compared to 6.0 in Q4 2018.

Confidence was up in Europe, from 6.1 to 6.3, and in North America, from 5.2 to 5.6. In Asia, meanwhile, there was a drop in overall confidence levels to 5.8 from the 12-month high of 6.3 recorded in the previous quarter.

Brokers were behind much of the increase in confidence. Their score was up from 5.2 to 5.9. The rating for owners and managers was down slightly from 6.4 to 6.3 and from 6.0 to 5.8 respectively. Charterers’ confidence was also down, from 6.8 to 6.0, although this still compared favourably with the rating of 5.0 returned 12 months ago.

The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating for all respondents of 6.8 out of 10.0.

According to the BDO quarterly survey, the likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down from 5.5 to 5.3 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence in this regard reached a record high of 7.3. Brokers’ confidence was also up, from 4.1 to 4.9. However, owners recorded a fall from 6.3 to 5.4. Managers’ ratings were unchanged at 5.6.Expectations were up in Europe from 5.2 to 5.3, but down in Asia from 6.2 to 5.2.

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was down from 67% to 48%, the lowest figure since August 2016. The figures for all categories of respondent were down, in the case of charterers from 80% to 33%.

Demand trends were cited by 26% of respondents as the factor most likely to influence performance over the next 12 months. Competition (19%) and finance costs (13%) featured in second and third place respectively in this context.

Net freight rate sentiment was positive in all three main tonnage categories identified in the BDO survey, with 51% of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market. This represents a drop of 9 percentage points on the previous survey score of 60%. Respondents expecting lower tanker rates fell from 9% to 6% this quarter.

In the dry bulk sector, expectations of rate increases were up strongly from 38% to 52%, while the numbers anticipating lower rates climbed slightly to 13% from 11%. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates rose by one percentage point to 26%, whilst those expecting lower container ship rates increased to 25% from 23%.

When asked to predict where crude oil prices would be in 12 months’ time, 37% of respondents in BDO’s survey opted for the $60-$69/barrel range. This figure is almost identical to the figure of 36% from February 2018. 17% of respondents opted for the $50-$59/barrel range compared to the 19% who did so last year, while 28% favoured the $70-$79/barrel range which was unchanged from 12 months ago.

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at BDO, says, “It is encouraging to begin the year with a small uptick in confidence. Despite continuing doubts and fears about trade wars, China’s GDP, uncertainty over exchange rates, President Trump’s decision-making, Brexit and general political instability in many parts of the world, shipping can still find reasons to be cheerful.

“Net freight rate sentiment remains positive in all three main tonnage categories, and there is a growing recognition that shipping is emerging from an extremely difficult period as a leaner and greener industry.

“A number of respondents noted that the financial difficulties faced by many companies in recent years have changed the dynamics of the industry, with an increase in consolidation, restructuring and mergers & acquisitions.

“At the same time, there appears to be general recognition that the likes of the IMO 2020 and Ballast Water Management regulations will help rid the industry of poorly maintained tonnage and increase both the viability and the pedigree of the world fleet.

“This will also appeal to potential investors looking to back environmentally compliant and technologically savvy industries. It seems that the shipping industry must prioritise achieving the benefits of regulatory compliance and technological innovation over the coming years.”

The BDO (formerly Moore Stephens LLP) Shipping & Transport team has extensive experience delivering accountancy, tax and advisory services to the sector worldwide.

BDO delivers key information and insights to the shipping community, including the annual OpCost report, the quarterly Shipping Confidence Survey and a host of thought leadership on topical issues, such as regulatory developments and market conditions.

https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/industries/shipping-and-transport


BDO LLP
BDO LLP operates in 17 locations across the UK, employing nearly 5,000 people offering tax, audit and assurance, and a range of advisory services. BDO LLP has underlying revenues of £590m and is the UK member firm of the BDO international network.

BDO’s global network
The BDO global network provides business advisory services in 162 countries, with 80,000 people working out of 1,600 offices worldwide. It has revenues of $9bn.

Press office:
+44(0)20 7893 3000
media@bdo.co.uk

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Shipping confidence dips but investment appetite remains undimmed

Shipping confidence dipped slightly in the three months to end-November 2018, according to the latest Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents fell to 6.0 out of a maximum score of 10.0, compared to the 6.3 recorded in August 2018.

Confidence on the part of all main categories of respondent was down, with the exception of brokers, where the rating increased from 4.9 to 5.2. Owners’ confidence fell to 6.4 from 6.8, which was originally the second highest achieved by this category of respondent in the life of the survey. The confidence rating for managers, meanwhile, was down from 6.2 to 6.0 and that for charterers from 7.0 to 6.8. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating for all respondents of 6.8 out of 10.0.

Confidence was down in Europe, from 6.2 to 6.1, and in North America, from 6.8 to 5.2, but held steady in Asia at 6.3, equalling the highest rating achieved over the past 12 months.

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged at 5.5 out of a maximum score of 10.0. Owners’ confidence was down from 6.5 to 6.3, but that for charterers was up from 4.0 to 6.6. Expectations of major investments were up in Asia from 6.1 to 6.2, but down in Europe from 5.3 to 5.2.

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was up from 59% to 67%. The figure for owners was up from 70% to 71%, while the figures for charterers and managers were up from 50% to 80%, and from 45% to 63% respectively. The rating for brokers was unchanged at 71%.

Competition, identified by 21% of respondents, overtook demand trends (20%) as the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, with finance costs (16%) in third place.

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was up by seven percentage points on the previous survey to 60%, while those expecting lower rates was up from 9% to 12%. In the dry bulk sector, expectations of rate increases were unchanged at 38%, accompanied by a four percentage point increase to 15% in the numbers anticipating lower rates. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates, meanwhile, fell by one percentage point to 25%, compared with 24% anticipating lower rates. Net freight rate sentiment in the tanker sector was +48, in dry bulk +23, and container ships +1.

In a stand-alone question, 24% of respondents said they expected the price differential between high-sulphur fuel oil and IMO-compliant low-sulphur fuel oil at 1 January 2020 to be between $250 and $324 per metric tonne. 23% put the figure at between $175 and $249, while 18% estimated it at between $325 and $399. 12% thought the cost differential would be between $100 and $174.

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says: “It is disappointing to close the year with a small downward tick in confidence. But shipping is nothing if not volatile, and there will always be ups and downs. We should not forget, either, that it was in 2018 that confidence reached a four-year high.

“It is encouraging to see that the appetite for new investment was not deterred by the drop in confidence. New investment is something that will clearly be needed moving forward, not least to fund expenditure on the technology necessary to achieve compliance with existing and evolving regulatory requirements, and this against a backdrop of rising finance costs over the coming year.

“It is noteworthy that almost a quarter of our survey respondents thought the price differential between high-sulphur fuel and IMO-compliant low-sulphur fuel come 1 January 2020 would be between $30 and $100 per metric tonne more than it is at present.

“Increased costs are inevitable. Increased earnings are essential.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 614 offices of independent member firms in 112 countries, employing 30,168 people and generating revenues in 2017 of $2.9 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk/shipping-transport

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Moore Stephens says optimism likely to outweigh pessimism for shipping in 2018

International accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens expects optimism to triumph over pessimism in the shipping industry during the next twelve months.

Writing in the latest issue of Bottom Line, the newsletter of the Moore Stephens shipping industry group, partner Richard Greiner says, “According to a recent study, pessimists live longer than optimists, and shipping is short of neither. But the industry has always valued longevity as well as new blood, and it certainly ended 2017 in more optimistic mood than it closed the previous year.

“Oscar Wilde said it is always best to borrow money from pessimists, because they won’t expect it back. But there was no shortage of people lending money for sound business deals in shipping last year in the firm belief that that they will get it back – and not without good reason.

“Overall industry confidence hit a three-year high in 2017. Oil prices reached a three-year peak, while there was a 50% rise in the Baltic Dry Index over a six-month period in the second half of 2017. Finance was available from within and outside the industry. Some sanity returned to the newbuilding orderbooks, and charterers in particular displayed an appetite for new investment.

“In 2018, freight rates will harden if there is a further reduction in tonnage overcapacity and an acceleration in ship demolition. Money will still be available for the right investment. Shipping will continue to be impacted by geopolitical uncertainty, which could be influenced in either a positive or negative way by elections in Brazil, Iraq, Italy, Mexico, Russia and elsewhere.

“US interest rates will most likely go up over the coming 12 months, and the implications of new accounting standards will start to bite. Smart technology will assume increasing importance, adding value and improving safety but putting pressure on R&D budgets. Doubts will persist about the sufficiency of low-sulphur fuel, and gas will become an increasingly attractive option for powering new and converted tonnage as the price of oil recovers.

“The riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma which currently presents itself as Brexit will continue to fuel pessimism and optimism in more-or-less equal measure.

“If there were no pessimists, there would be no optimists. Shipping remains a vital global industry, carrying the vast majority of world trade while emitting a lower per-unit level of harmful emissions than any other comparable form of transport. In 2018, optimism can be expected to outweigh pessimism in the shipping industry.”


Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence continues to edge upwards

Shipping confidence reached its highest rating in the past three years in the three months to end-August 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the survey was up slightly from the 6.1 out of 10.0 recorded in the previous survey in May 2017 to a three-year high of 6.2. The improved rating was attributable mainly to increased confidence on the part of owners, up from 6.1 to 6.5. Confidence levels on the part of brokers, meanwhile, fell from 6.4 to 6.3, while managers and charterers recorded more substantial drops – from 6.2 to 5.8 and from 6.4 to 4.7 respectively, the lowest levels in both cases since May 2016. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

Confidence levels were significantly up in Asia from 5.6 to 6.4, their highest level since May 2014. Confidence was also up in Europe, from 6.2 to 6.3, but down in North America, from 6.4 to 5.8.

Despite familiar concerns about excess tonnage capacity in many trades and continuing uncertainty over Brexit, several respondents saw reasons for optimism over the coming 12 months, not least as a result of what one described as “some green shoots of a relatively broad-based rebound in economic activity.” This helped maintain, at a three-year high, expectations of major investments being made over the next 12 months. Concern, however, persisted over political instability, the incipient cost of increased legislation, and the probable entry into the market of low-cost newbuildings.

One respondent said: “The future of the maritime industry will certainly be interesting, but will it also be enjoyable?”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged from the previous survey at 5.4 out of a maximum possible score of 10.0. This represents the highest level achieved since August 2014, and this despite a slight fall this time (from 5.9 to 5.8) in the expectations of owners, and a much larger one (from 6.3 to 4.0) by charterers. The expectations of respondents in Asia were up, from 5.1 to 5.9, but down in Europe, from 5.4 to 5.2.

As was the case in the May 2017 survey, 50% of respondents expected finance costs to increase over the coming year. Owners’ expectations were unchanged at 48%, but both managers and charterers (where the figures were up from 57% to 62% and from 57% to 67%, respectively) were anticipating dearer finance. Brokers were alone among the main categories of respondent in recording a fall (from 63% to 42%) in the numbers expecting finance costs to go down.

Demand trends, cited by 27% of respondents, continued to be the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, followed by competition (17%) and tonnage supply (15%), the latter displacing finance costs in third place. One respondent said: “Confidence is impaired by the inexperience of investment houses resulting in over-liquidity in the market, which feels that it has to spend just for the sake of it – a ‘greed-eats-brain’ mentality.”

The number of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was up on the previous survey, from 32% to 45%, while there was a 2% fall, to 14%, in those anticipating lower tanker rates. Meanwhile, although there was a two percentage-point fall, to 56%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, this was still the second-highest figure in three-and-a-half years. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates dropped by six percentage points to 40%, while there was a five percent increase, to 17%, in those anticipating lower container ship rates.

Net sentiment was positive in all the main tonnage categories, and up in the tanker market from +16 in May 2017 to +31 this time. There were meanwhile small declines in net sentiment in the dry bulk and container ship trades, from +50 to +49 and from +34 to +23 respectively.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to rank in order of priority what they considered to be the most significant new sources of finance for shipping over the next 12 months. Bank finance emerged as the first choice of 27% of respondents, followed by private equity (18%). Lease finance (14%) featured in third place, one percentage point ahead of shareholder funds. One respondent said: “Banks are being a lot tougher with owners, and it is good to see the demise of the CV and KG systems which generally did little to help the long-term viability of the industry.” Another observed: “For good owners, there is still capital available. But the worry is for the second and third-rung owners.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transports, says: “Another three months, and another rise in confidence in the shipping industry, albeit a small one. Confidence has been increasing steadily over the past 15 months, and industry players are more confident of making a major investment over the coming year than they have been at any time in the past three years. Moreover, net sentiment in all three main tonnage categories is positive, having almost doubled in the tanker sector over the past quarter.

“This welcome boost in confidence comes at a difficult time for the industry, beset by overtonnaging in many trades, the current and impending cost of regulatory compliance, and more widely by geo-political pressures. Clearly, shipping still has a lot to offer existing and new investors alike, both traditional and external.

“To some extent, success in the shipping industry is a question of being in the right place at the right time. But there is a lot of skill, knowledge and experience involved, too. It is good to see that confidence is still on the increase. They do say that it’s the hope that kills you but, in truth, the lack of it is likely to be far more damaging.”

To download a copy of the survey report please visit the Moore Stephens website:
https://www.moorestephens.co.uk/news-views/september-2017/shipping-confidence-continues-to-edge-upwards

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

London P&I Club reports increased free reserves for 2016/2017

THE London P&I Club has issued an advance summary of its result for the 2016/2017 financial year, ahead of the publication of its annual report. The Club recorded an overall surplus of $27.3m, increasing the free reserve to $188m. The combined ratio was 97.9 per cent. The positive technical performance was supplemented by an investment return of 8.4 per cent.

Ian Gooch, CEO of the Club’s management team comments: ‘There were various drivers behind this positive result with the claims environment – which remained benign by longer-term historic standards – being an important factor, even though it was not as favourable as the 2015/2016 year. In particular, we saw a notable reduction in retained claims in the band between $500,000 and $1m and in the level of claims falling on the International Group Pool’.

www.londonpandi.com

Shipping confidence holds steady despite industry and political pressures

Shipping confidence held steady in the three months to end-February 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

In February 2017, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.6 out of 10.0, unchanged from the previous survey in November 2016 and equal to the highest rating since August 2015. Owners were the only main category to show an improved level of confidence, up from 5.4 to 5.6. Confidence on the part of charterers was down from its all-time survey high of 6.8 to 5.9, while that of managers fell from 6.4 to 6.0. Confidence levels in the broking sector, meanwhile, dropped from 5.6 to 4.6. The survey launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

Confidence was up in Europe and North America, from 5.4 to 5.5 and 5.9 to 6.1 respectively, but down from 5.7 to 5.6 in Asia.

Respondents generally felt that competition was running at very high levels, while other familiar concerns included overtonnaging and geopolitical uncertainty. Most respondents saw 2017 as a year of retrenchment rather than improvement. One said, “If owners can maintain their discipline and resist the blandishments of shipyards desperate for business, there is hope that 2018 will see a return of market equilibrium, in which continued scrapping remains a key element.” Another, meanwhile, noted, “The current state of most shipping markets, coupled with the weakness of banks, means that conditions should be more attractive for alternative lenders.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged for the fourth successive quarter, at 4.9 out of 10.0. Managers’ expectations were up from 5.2 to 5.6, the highest level since August 2015. Owners’ expectations were also up, from 5.0 to 5.1, but those of charterers and brokers were down, from 6.4 to 5.8 and 3.8 to 3.4 respectively.

The number of respondents expecting finance costs to increase over the coming year rose by one percentage point to 54%, the highest level since November 2011. Owners’ expectations of increases fell from 58% to 57%, while the figures for brokers were also down, from 53% to 41%. Managers were of a different mind, with 61% expecting increases as opposed to 52% in November 2016.

Demand trends overtook competition as the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, followed by finance costs and tonnage supply. “Competition is so intense at the moment,” said one respondent: “that you either accept what is offered or a competitor will take the cargo.”

The number of respondents expecting higher rates in the tanker market over the next 12 months fell by eight percentage points to 25%, while the number anticipating lower tanker rates rose from 24% to 28%. Meanwhile, there was a three-percentage-point rise, to 44%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, although one respondent remarked, “The dry bulk freight market will continue to be tough, with returns not much above break-even”. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates rose from 27% to 31%, while there was a three-percentage-point fall, to 18%, in those anticipating lower container ship rates. The net sentiment in the tanker markets was -3 (compared to +9 in November 2016), while it was +33 (up from +31 last time) in the dry bulk markets and +13 (compared to +6 in the previous survey) in the container ship trades.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to identify the price range they expected crude oil (per-barrel) to be in 12 months’ time. The most popular estimate was the $50-$59 range, identified by 38% of respondents, as opposed to 19% in the February 2016 survey. Meanwhile, 12% of respondents opted for the $40-$49 range compared to 26% last time. The $60-$69 price range was favoured by 29%, as opposed to just 5% one year ago. In February 2016, 31% predicted crude oil prices to be in the $30-$39 price range, whereas just 1% did so this time.

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “After three successive quarterly increases, shipping confidence has held steady. This is encouraging given the continuing political uncertainty in the US and Europe. Shipping is vulnerable to changes in the political landscape, and a slew of elections in leading industrialised nations will render it particularly so this year.

“Elsewhere, the issues facing the industry include an over-supply of ships and insufficient demolition. Freight markets are dragging along the bottom in many sectors, with net rate sentiment in the tanker market being particularly low. Add to this the expectation of higher ship finance costs, the mounting costs of regulation, the threat of cyber-crime and projected increases in operating costs and it is evident that shipping will not be a picnic for the foreseeable future.

“But shipping is not a natural fit for the pessimist, and those with meaningful experience of the industry will be looking with some justification for a re-strengthening of rates in the tanker and dry-bulk trades, supported by continued rationalisation of newbuilding plans and accelerated recycling levels. Meanwhile, oil prices will continue to go up, which is mixed news for the shipping industry. For those who can effectively manage risk and volatility, shipping is still the place to be.”

The full survey report can be downloaded from the Moore Stephens website:
http://www.moorestephens.co.uk/News-views/March-2017/shipping-confidence-industry-political-pressures


Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Optimistic charterers help boost shipping confidence to 15-month high

Shipping confidence improved for the third successive quarter in the three months to end-November 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

In November 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.6 out of 10.0, equalling the highest rating since August 2015. All main categories of respondent were more confident than in August 2016, when the overall rating was 5.4. Charterers’ confidence this time increased by 2.0 points, to 6.8, the highest figure in the life of the survey for such respondents. The confidence of owners was up from 5.3 to 5.4, of brokers from 4.5 to 5.6, and of managers from 6.0 to 6.4. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

Confidence was up in Asia, from 5.5 to 5.7, in Europe from 5.2 to 5.4, and in North America from 5.8 to 5.9.

A number of respondents felt that the bottom of the cycle had been reached and that the only way was up. Particular concern was expressed about overtonnaging, insufficient recycling, and the cost of regulatory compliance. One respondent noted, “The oversupply of tonnage will cease when the banks write down bad loans and force owners to sell for scrap,” while another said, “The weak or unlucky will fold or be gobbled up, while the strong or the lucky will grow and succeed.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged, at 4.9 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence in this regard was up from 5.0 to 6.4, equalling its highest figure since August 2013. Owners’ expectations were also up, from 4.8 to 5.0, but those of managers and brokers were down, from 5.3 to 5.2 and from 4.1 to 3.8 respectively. According to one respondent, “It is hard to see how major investment to meet environmental regulations can be justified in the current climate.”

The number of respondents expecting finance costs to increase over the coming year rose from 35% to 53%, the highest level for five years. Owners’ expectations in this regard rose from 31% to 58%, their highest level since May 2011. The figures for brokers and managers were also up, from 47% to 53% and from 30% to 52%, respectively. Charterers were alone in not anticipating any increase in finance costs. “Major investment will be required over the next few years to meet increasingly stringent environmental regulations,” said one respondent, “at a time when earnings are on the floor and bank finance is hard to come by.”

Competition is expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, just ahead of demand trends, followed by finance costs and tonnage supply. One respondent said, “If demand remains weak, we don’t anticipate any improvement in the shipping markets over the next five years, particularly for dry bulk cargoes.”

The number of respondents expecting higher rates in the tanker market over the next 12 months rose by ten percentage points to 33%, the highest figure since August 2015, while the number anticipating lower tanker rates fell from 37% to 24%. Meanwhile, there was a three percentage-point rise, to 41%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates rose from 22% to 27%, but there was a five percentage-point increase, to 21%, in those anticipating lower rates. The net sentiment in the tanker markets was +9, while it was +31 in the dry bulk markets and +6 in the container ship trades.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked what they considered would be the most important source of funding for the installation of Ballast Water Management (BWM) systems by shipowners. Overall, on a weighted average basis, 21% of respondents felt that shipowner equity (shareholder funds) would provide the source of funding. Next came bank finance, at 19%, BWM system manufacturers (15%), shipyards (12%) and other non-bank finance (10%). One respondent said, “Financing BWM is almost impossible. Owners have no money for it.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “This is the third successive increase in shipping confidence recorded by our survey. So despite overtonnaging, weak freight rates, declining demand, insufficient recycling, Brexit, Syria, Trump, despite everything, shipping is still looking up, rather than down. This is not to deny the reality of today’s difficult market, or the sluggish economic climate. But it does say much for the strength of shipping’s backbone and the quality of its mettle.

“Those who can point to a long history in shipping will be better placed to gauge the severity and longevity of the current downturn than those with a shorter pedigree in the industry. But both will need access to finance and to other resources in order to meet the challenges which lie ahead. Not the least of these is the ongoing regulatory environmental compliance programme, even if implementation of the BWM convention may be caveated with potential delay and amendment for a little while longer.

“Many of our respondents felt that things can only get better. They are probably right. But for that to happen, freight rates will have to go up. Perhaps it is safer to say for the moment that, if we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 657 offices of independent member firms in 106 countries, employing 27,613 people and generating revenues in 2015 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk.


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP, London
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Moore Stephens reports second successive quarterly rise in shipping confidence

Shipping confidence, notably on the part of charterers and managers, improved for the second successive quarter in the three months to end-August 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

In August 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.4 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). This is an improvement on the 5.1 recorded in May 2016, and the highest rating for the past nine months of the survey, which was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

Although confidence on the part of owners was down this time from 5.7 to 5.3, charterers (up from 4.0 to 4.8), managers (up from 5.1 to 6.0) and brokers (up from 4.3 to 4.5) were all more optimistic than in May 2016. Geographically, confidence was up in Asia, from 5.2 to 5.5, and in North America from 5.0 to 5.8, with sentiment in Europe unchanged at 5.2.

Overcapacity was the dominant theme of comments from respondents to the survey. “Scrapping is still not sufficient to cope with newbuilding deliveries and the general supply-side overhang. Every new order will prolong the crisis,” said one, while another noted, “If we all stay away from ordering relatively cheap tonnage today, supply and demand will soon recover.”

Conditions in the dry bulk market also occupied the thoughts of large numbers of respondents. “Implementation of the Ballast Water Management Convention will most likely solve overcapacity,” said one, “but it will also cause a bloodbath among owners.” Another remarked, “Growth is non-existent, so there is no hope there,” while another still simply said, “We have lost confidence in the dry bulk market.” Other respondents were slightly more optimistic, with one noting, “We expect the dry bulk markets to improve significantly during the course of 2017.”

Concerns about the global economy were uppermost in the minds of a number of respondents, one of whom neatly encapsulated a number of the main issues currently impacting the shipping industry by noting, “Brexit, Trump, supply overhang, consolidation, demolition, bankruptcies, and the low risk appetite of banks for shipping and shipping stocks seem to be the main topics to follow for the next 12 months or so. We would be pleasantly surprised if this were to change.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged on the previous survey, with a rating of 4.9 on a scale of 1 to 10. The confidence of charterers in this respect was up significantly, from 4.1 to 5.0, while brokers also recorded a small increase, from 3.5 to 4.1. Owners and managers, however, were less confident in this regard than they were three months ago, dropping from 5.7 to 4.8 and from 5.4 to 5.3 respectively. One respondent said, “Massive investment, mainly from inexperienced funds and private entrepreneurs, has resulted in an oversupply of funding in some trades.”

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the next 12 months was down by six percentage points, to 35%. There was a noticeable fall in the numbers of owners (down by six percentage points to 31%), managers (down by 19 percentage points to 30%) and charterers (down by two percentage points to 27%) anticipating higher finance costs. One respondent said, “Shipping banks need to be more realistic about pricing if they want to sell debt as a means of reducing their exposure to the sector.”

Demand trends, competition and tonnage supply featured again as the top three factors cited by respondents as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12. Demand trends, which were up by two percentage points to 26%, remained in first place, with competition (down by three percentage points to 20%) in second. Tonnage supply, unchanged at 16%, occupied joint-third spot with finance costs, which were up by one percentage point. Operating costs, up by one percentage point to 10%, featured in fifth place, ahead of fuel costs (5%) and regulation (4%). One respondent said, “We have read many, many times that we have reached the bottom of the cycle, only for a lower offer to appear in the market a few hours later.”

The number of respondents expecting higher charter rates in the tanker market over the next 12 months was unchanged at 23%, while the numbers anticipating lower tanker rates rose by three percentage points to 37%. Meanwhile, there was a five percentage-point drop, from 43% down to 38% in the numbers of like mind in the dry bulk trades, and a one percentage point increase, to 12%, in the numbers anticipating lower dry bulk rates. In the container ship sector, the number of respondents expecting higher rates was up by one percentage point to 22%, while there was a fall, from 20% to 16%, in the numbers anticipating lower rates.

The net sentiment in the tanker markets was -14, as opposed to +26 in the dry bulk markets and +6 in the container ship trades.

One respondent said, “Too many dry cargo ships have been built, and we are not confident that the freight market will improve sufficiently to justify investment, especially from people who have no previous experience of shipping.” Another remarked, “A whole class of container ships is essentially obsolete following the opening of the widened Panama Canal.”

Respondents were asked a stand-alone question about the perceived barriers to women playing a greater role in the shipping industry. Overall, 31% of respondents placed ‘workplace attitude or corporate culture’ in the top five factors in this regard. ‘Travel implications in day-to-day roles’, meanwhile, was a top five factor for 21% of respondents, while ‘lack of career progression’ was placed third, at 19%. One respondent said, “There are no barriers. It is up to the individual to pursue her career with determination and strength of character.” Another, however, complained that, “The culture in the industry is male chauvinist.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “Given the challenges currently facing the industry, the continuing uncertainty surrounding the worldwide economy, and the ongoing level of global geopolitical instability, it is encouraging to see an increase in shipping confidence for the second successive quarter. Confidence is now at its highest level for nine months, which says much for the resilience of the shipping industry.

“Concern persists about too much tonnage and not enough recycling. Restoring the correct balance to tonnage supply and demand is a long-term undertaking, the complexities and diverse nature of which are arguably well captured by the respondent who noted, ‘We have divided interests. For our customers, we hope that nobody orders any vessels for the next 12 months. For us, we hope that people do, because we need newbuildings’.”

“Given the pace of technological development, the continuing imperative to improve the industry’s environmental footprint, and the exigencies of escalating regulation, the industry will always need newbuildings. The trick is to make sure that there is room – and work – for them in a market which encourages responsible competition and allows a sensible margin for profit. That requires, among other things, an increase in ship demolition levels which, given the recent decline in dry bulk recycling and the perceived impossibility of recycling enough container ships, seems unlikely.

“The maintenance of sensible levels of competition is also a prerequisite for a healthy and profitable shipping industry. Since the survey was launched in 2008, respondents have consistently identified competition as one of the main factors likely to influence their performance most significantly. All trade sectors thrive on responsible competition, which works as an incentive to progress and profitability. But irresponsible competition can have the opposite effect, witness the respondent who referred to ‘those who focus on how to trick, treat and corrupt under the broad term ‘competition’.”

“Perversely, the collapse of Hanjin Shipping Co., which occurred after our survey was concluded, may have a positive effect on overtonnaging, although nobody would have been looking for such an extreme solution. Hanjin’s collapse has sent shockwaves through the industry which will continue to reverberate for many months to come. It may also give pause for thought to those who see the future of container shipping as ever bigger and more diverse alliances.

“Equally perverse is the very real possibility that final ratification of the Ballast Water Management Convention may have a positive effect on overcapacity. It might not be correct to say that this development has sent shockwaves through the shipping sector, because the industry has known for some time that it has been coming, and has been pondering how best to meet its requirements and how to fund the considerable cost of so doing. It matters not whether it was the ratification by Finland which finished the uncertainty about implementation, or whether it was Panama’s huge fleet which activated the green light. A shock is no less shocking for being expected, and the fact is that the convention will enter into force in September 2017. It will be instructive to see how shipping deals with the issue, and from what level of preparedness, the extent of which will become clearer over the coming months.

“A stand-alone question in our survey asked respondents to name the biggest barriers to women playing a greater role in today’s shipping industry. More than 65% identified ‘workplace or corporate culture’ as the number one barrier. James Brown famously sang, ‘This is a Man’s World’, although not everybody remembers that the self-styled Godfather of Soul went on to say, “but it wouldn’t be nothing without a woman or a girl’. It is beyond any reasonable measure of doubt that shipping will need the efforts of every man and woman working within the industry today to tackle both current challenges and those which lie in wait.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 657 offices of independent member firms in 106 countries, employing 27,613 people and generating revenues in 2015 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Moore Stephens reports small rise in shipping confidence

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose slightly in the three months to May 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). This is a slight improvement on the 5.0 recorded in February 2016, but is still the second lowest rating in the life of the survey, which was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.
Confidence on the part of owners was markedly up this time, from 4.8 to 5.7, while charterers were also slightly more optimistic than in February, their rating inching up from 3.9 to 4.0. Confidence among managers and brokers, however, was down, from 5.5 to 5.1 and from 5.1 to 4.3 respectively.

Geographically, albeit from very low levels last time, confidence was up in Asia, from 4.4 to 5.2, in Europe from 5.1 to 5.2, and in North America from 4.7 to 5.0.
Economic and geopolitical uncertainty was uppermost in the thoughts of many respondents. “Overall world economic growth is still not moving concertedly in a positive direction,” said one, “so that we have what might best be described as a patchy global economic recovery.” Another emphasised, “Unless there is a drastic change in geopolitical events, shipping markets will remain in their present condition for another 12 months.” Elsewhere it was noted, “World economies are in transition, and we have to adapt to a period when money is not so easy to come by.”

The availability of money for shipping projects, meanwhile, was another recurring theme in respondents’ comments. “Finance is way too cheap,” said one, “and has caused a massive over-supply of tonnage.” Not everybody agreed, however. One respondent complained, “Demands for early loan repayments have been a huge blow to owners’ survival plans,” while another said, “Unstable income due to the collapse in the markets has led financiers to lose confidence in owners.”
Once again, a surfeit of tonnage and a paucity of scrapping were referenced by a number of respondents. One noted, “Far too many newbuildings in the ultra-to-VLOC size range will be hitting the market in the next 12-to-18 months,” while elsewhere it was noted that what is needed is, “strong scrapping, fewer dry newbuildings, stiffer regulations, better and more uniform control.”

Another respondent said, “Over-supply of tonnage is still the key influencing factor in the market, and there will be no real change until bold decisions are made in respect of scrapping tonnage which is less than twenty years old.”
It was not all pessimism, however. One respondent insisted, “There are lots of opportunities in the market for smart operators. Those who merely follow the lead of others will, as always, suffer, because they do not understand the market.” More than one respondent, meanwhile, emphasised that, in many cases, there is simply no alternative to shipping. “Shipping is the major means of transporting goods in the world, and shipping lanes will continue to increase,” said one. “There is still a market out there,” said another, “but we can’t all be winners, and there is no longer any room for mediocre performance.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was up marginally on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, to 4.9 from 4.8 last time, which equalled the figure recorded in February 2009 as the lowest in the life of the survey to date. The confidence of owners in this respect was up significantly, from 4.9 to 5.7, while managers also recorded a small increase, from 5.3 to 5.4. Charterers and brokers, however, were less confident in this regard than they were three months ago, dropping from 5.1 to 4.1 and from 4.4 to 3.5 respectively.

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the next 12 months was down by one percentage point on last time, to 41 %. The numbers of owners (37 %), managers (49%) and brokers (44 %) anticipating dearer finance were up by one, 6 and 8 percentage points respectively, but charterers’ expectations in this regard were down by 27 percentage points to just 29%.

Demand trends, competition and tonnage supply featured again as the top three factors cited by respondents as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months. Demand trends, which were actually down by two percentage points to 24 %, remained in first place, with competition (up 2 percentage points to 23 %) in second place. Tonnage supply, up one percentage point to 16 %, occupied third place, one percentage point ahead of finance costs. Operating costs, down by 3 percentage points to 9 %, featured in fifth place, ahead of regulation (5 %) and fuel costs (4 %).

Though overall sentiment in the tanker market was still negative, there was a 5 percentage-point increase (to 23 %) in the number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months, and a 3 percentage-point increase (to 43 %) in the numbers of like mind in the dry bulk trades. But there was a 6 percentage-point fall (to 21 %) in the number of respondents anticipating higher rates in the container ship market. The net sentiment in the tanker market was -11, but +32 and +1 in the dry bulk and container ship sectors respectively.

Respondents were asked a stand-alone question concerning whether or not the UK should leave the European Union. Overall, 77% of respondents felt the UK should remain in the EU. But whereas 79% of owners and 75% of managers were of that view, in the case of charterers and brokers it was significantly lower – 57% and 38% respectively. Twenty percent of respondents felt that an EU exit would have some negative impact on their business, but 64% said it would have no impact at all. So far as UK respondents alone were concerned, 59% thought the UK should remain in the European Union, while 49% thought that leaving the EU would have no impact at all on their business.

One respondent said, “There is likely to be no major impact if the UK votes to leave the EU, but there could be a period of uncertainty in connection with rules and regulations.” Another, however, pointed out, “Shipping is a very complex international business. Having an extra layer of bureaucrats in Brussels has a negative effect on economic wellbeing under just about any form of government.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens partner, Shipping Industry Group, says, “If there is one thing certain in the current shipping market, it is the level of uncertainty which is pervading all sectors at the moment. Over the three months covered by our latest survey, that uncertainty has embraced a variety of industry-specific issues, as well as geopolitical factors ranging from the UK referendum on EU membership to the comparative slowdown in the Chinese economy. Against such a background, any increase in shipping confidence – however small – is welcome.

“Many of our respondents continue to express serious misgivings about the extent of overtonnaging, and about the inadequacy of current levels of demolition activity. One informed estimate recently put world shipbuilding overcapacity at 50%. Other estimates, meanwhile, put first-quarter 2016 demolition levels at roughly 50% more than in the same period the previous year. Where ship recycling is concerned, however, 50% of not very much is not enough. As one respondent to our survey noted, ‘We have still to see 15-year-old ships being sent to scrapyards in any meaningful manner.’

“There is meanwhile little cheer in the freight markets. In the dry bulk sector, rates are described as ‘dire’, while it is reported that the container ship market is seeing some of the lowest freight rates in its history. The tanker sector is faring better by comparison, but its fortunes over the coming 12 months will be closely linked to what happens to oil prices. The Baltic Dry Index, although recovering from its recent all-time low, is languishing by comparison with its ‘salad days’, and may continue to do so for some time absent a significant upturn in the Chinese economy.

“It is clear that shipping is in for a hard 12 months. The problems cited by the respondents to our survey are familiar in nature and, in many cases, growing in the extent of their severity. The fact that only 5% of respondents considered regulation to be one of the main factors likely to influence their performance over the coming 12 months is either an indication of the severity and immediacy of other factors, or else an acceptance that there is still time to save up for what is needed to comply with new regulation. The Ballast Water Management Convention now stands on the cusp of ratification at a largely unquantifiable cost to operators.

“The mood of our respondents was not universally downbeat, however. A number continued to emphasise the fact that other methods of transportation are invariably not a viable alternative to shipping, while others stressed that innovative operators will always find a way to succeed, including accessing the finance needed to do so. And while some complained about the difficulty of securing or maintaining finance, 45% of owners rated the possibility of making a new investment over the coming 12 months at 7 out of 10 or higher.

“In general terms, the continuing advent of new technology and the relentless march of regulation are intended to make shipping safer, cleaner, more accountable and more competitive - an environment that would be a natural fit for well-founded operators with sound business plans and long-term aspirations. But the cost of achieving those aims is high, and ultimately much will depend on the industry’s ability to rationalise capacity and thereby push up freight rates.”
Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 657 offices of independent member firms in 106 countries, employing 27,613 people and generating revenues in 2015 of $2.7 billion.
www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence levels rise to 2015 high

Shipping confidence levels rise to 2015 high

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose in the three months ended August 2015 to their highest level this year, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. Respondents to the survey were concerned predominantly about low freight rates and overtonnaging, with continuing doubts also expressed about private equity funding.

In August 2015, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.9 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). This compares to the 5.3 recorded in May 2015, which equalled the lowest figure recorded in the life of the survey, launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

All main categories of respondent recorded an increase in confidence this time, most notably charterers (up from 4.2 to 6.5) and owners (up from 5.1 to 5.8). The confidence of brokers, meanwhile, was up from 4.8 to 5.2, and that of managers from 6.1 to 6.4.

Geographically, confidence was up in Asia from 4.9 to 5.8, in Europe from 5.3 to 5.9, and in North America from 6.0 to 6.3.

While some respondents were confident that the shipping markets would improve in line with economic developments, others were more cautious. One said, “The shipping markets have been over-stocked, and there has been far too much interest from non-traditional shipping sources with no real clue how these intricate markets work. Once built, the ships are there! The low oil cost means the drive for alternative fuels and cheaper propulsion is not being followed as diligently as one might have expected.”

A number of respondents echoed the concern about the potentially harmful effect of the entry into the market of non-traditional shipping sources, while there was the usual level of concern about too many ships and too little scrapping. Increased regulation was another recurring topic, with one respondent complaining, “Regulations are going to kill us!”

Another respondent emphasised, “Current market conditions realistically reflect tonnage oversupply in all sectors. Until this corrects itself, global trade patterns will skew supply over demand. Shipping decisions are very often made on sentiment, but current confidence cannot be based on this.” Another still said, “Expect a static trend for the next few years. It might require a major conflagration to kick-start the industry. That may sound unpleasant, but without it we are in for a lengthy stay in the doldrums.”

“Everything seems to be operating on the two-steps-forward-and-one-back principle, alternating with the one-step-forward and two-back principle!” said one respondent, while another cautioned, “Today’s shipping market is really competitive and we need to be more careful in choosing good and reputable principals.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was up on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, from 5.0 to 5.3, equalling the highest figure over the past 12 months. All main categories of respondent were more confident in this regard than they were three months ago, most notably charterers (up from 4.5 to 6.1).

One respondent noted, “Although we look for a stable long-term charter, it is unlikely that charterers could commit themselves to a term longer than three years. We are trying to decrease our exposure to shipping assets.” Another remarked, “There is concern about over-investment in tonnage in the wet trades by private equity houses, which has the potential to create a significant drop in rates and a further long run of below-opex returns for owners.”

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the next 12 months was up by eight percentage points, from 40% to 48%. The shift in sentiment in this regard was most notable in the case of owners (up from 35% to 53%) and charterers (up from 33% to 50%).

One respondent said, “The global economic slowdown is a major cause for concern, especially in developing countries.”

Competition, demand trends and finance costs featured as the top three factors cited by respondents as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months. The numbers for competition were up 5 percentage points on last time to 25%. There was a one percentage-point drop (to 23%) in the numbers citing demand trends in this regard, and an increase of 4 percentage points (to 18%) for finance costs. Operating costs, unchanged at 11 %, featured in fourth place, ahead of tonnage supply, down 8 percentage points to 7%. Fuel costs, crew supply, regulation and port congestion occupied the remaining places.

One respondent said, “Many small competitors are entering the market without observing the necessary business ethics.”

There was a fall in the number of respondents anticipating higher freight rates in the tanker and container ship sectors, but expectations of improved rates in the dry bulk trades were up on the figures for May 2015. There was a positive overall net sentiment for all three tonnage categories: +12 for tankers, +21 for dry bulk, and +3 for container ships.

One respondent said, “We expect the tanker market to remain on a steady path over the next 12 months.” Respondents meanwhile expressed “significant concerns about continued oversupply in the dry bulk sector,” while elsewhere it was noted, “Less ordering in the container sector, as a result of mixed/weak results will help to balance supply/demand going forward.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping Industry Group says: “It is always encouraging to see a graph moving in the right direction. Perversely, the main reason for the improved level of confidence revealed by our latest survey may be the same as that which saw the industry’s perceived fortunes equalling a seven-year low in May of this year. Volatility works both ways.

“One respondent highlighted a perceived trend towards the so-called bureaucratisation of shipping, with smaller players losing out to their bigger competitors. Few would argue that there has ever been a tougher time for the smaller operator than in today’s industry. Yet such businesses can, and do, survive. To do so, they need to identify a niche role in the market, one in which they can add value and provide a level of service superior to that offered by their competitors. Moreover, in common with even the biggest players, they need a sound business plan.

“Another observation concerned the way in which some traditional trades are in danger of disappearing as the EU increasingly becomes a destination for imports from the Far East and India, rather than a producer of goods. This is not a new phenomenon, but it does underline how important it is for shipping businesses to keep pace with and adapt to change, or even anticipate it where possible. Information, and the ability to disseminate it, together with the timely identification of risk, has never been more important.

“The respondents to our survey are asked to comment on their industry expectations over the coming 12 months. Many of them, however, are also interested in the longer-term view, and the portents here are generally encouraging.

“Firstly, world population is growing, and has been since the end of the Black Death. At the end of 1970, it stood at 3.7 billion. The United Nations predicts that the global population will reach between 8.3 billion and 10.9 billion by 2050. This creates and sustains demand for shipping services, and that is good news for the industry.

“In 1970, according to the IMF, annual world GDP was growing at the rate of 3.7%. By 2000, the figure was 4.8%. Today, world GDP growth is put at 3.5%, but is predicted to climb to almost 4.0% by 2020. In short, the world economy is predicted to grow which, again, is good news for shipping.

“The World Trade Organisation forecasts that growth in the volume of world trade will rise from 2.8% in 2014 to 4.0% in 2016. Again, that is good news for shipping. World trade carried by sea is also on the increase and, despite the current difficult economic climate, the longer-term outlook for the industry remains positive as emerging economies continue to increase their requirements for seaborne goods and raw materials.

“So the long-term outlook for shipping offers encouragement to existing and new investors alike. Those who are not attracted by the longer-term prospects, meanwhile, will doubtless exit the industry, and in the process may help solve some of its problems.”
The Moore Stephens Shipping Confidence Survey includes responses from key players worldwide in the international shipping industry to a targeted, web-based survey by the Moore Stephens Shipping Industry Group.

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 103 countries, employing 26,290 people and generating revenues in 2014 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

London P&I Club maintains financial strength despite impact of large claims

THE London P&I Club’s 2015 Annual Report highlights an unusual run of expensive claims in the 2014/15 policy year, with progress in other areas meaning that the free reserves stand at a healthy $157.4m.

Ian Gooch, chief executive of the club’s management team, says, “During the course of the last policy year, the club was required to respond in respect of fourteen claims in excess of $1m, two of which are expected to exceed the $9m retention level and have accordingly been notified to the International Group Pool. This was an extremely unusual experience; to put it in perspective, there has only been one other policy year in the past ten in which the number of the club’s claims in the band in excess of $1m exceeded eight at expiry.”

Ian Gooch adds, “Notwithstanding the detrimental effect of this intense claims activity, positive developments in a number of areas mitigated the overall impact, which was a small deficit of $3.2m. Churn remains a part of our operating environment, but there was further growth in the club’s premium income along with an increase in the owned and especially the charterers entries from markets including Singapore and Turkey, where we have been working to increase our profile and outreach. The club’s total combined entry is in excess of 50m gt. There was also positive investment performance involving a 5.5 percent return on the club’s invested assets and cash, augmented by a revaluation gain in the value of the London office.”

www.londonpandi.com

Shipping confidence drops to two-year low as concern mounts over cost of regulation

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to November 2014 to their lowest level for two years, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. The survey revealed increasing concern about the high cost of achieving compliance with new regulations, and ongoing doubts about overtonnaging. But it was not all bad news, with charterers, managers and brokers all more confident than they were three months previously of making a new investment over the coming year.

In November 2014, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.7 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high), down from the 6.1 recorded in August 2014. This compares to the record high of 6.8 when the survey was launched in May 2008.

All categories of respondent recorded a fall in confidence this time, most notably charterers (down to 5.4 from a record high of 6.7 three months ago) and owners (down from 6.2 to 5.5). Confidence on the part of managers, meanwhile, fell marginally from 6.2 to 6.1, while for brokers it was down from 5.3 to 5.0. Geographically, confidence was down in Asia and Europe to 5.8 and 5.6 respectively from the levels of 6.0 and 6.1 recorded three months previously. Confidence in North America, however, held steady at 6.2.

A number of respondents referred to continuing uncertainty in the markets, resulting from a variety of factors. One said, “The market remains directionless. It needs accelerated scrapping, which would make economic sense for owners of older tonnage. But, given the recent drop in fuel costs, such owners could elect to hold on to their ships for the time being.”

One respondent predicted, “Most sectors will continue to struggle along the bottom, kept alive by low interest rates,” while another felt, “There is still too much capacity and an unreasonable expectation of performance levels, given all the new ordering that is taking place.”

Not everybody was quite so pessimistic, however. One respondent said, “The global markets are expected to pick up around mid-2015,” but warned that the viability of shipping depended on the scrapping of 60 percent of all vessels over 20 years’ old and on a drastic reduction in the number of new vessels being built.

One respondent predicted, “The shipping market will improve slightly over the next few months as it mirrors the slow improvement in global markets.” But not everybody agreed. “The road to recovery is very long and very hard,” said one respondent. “Europe is still struggling and it seems unlikely that things will improve soon, even if demand for shipping increases in other parts of the world where the economy is faring better.” Another noted, “The world economy is not as healthy as expected. China has changed its growth model, while Europe is struggling under austerity measures and a lack of investment. The US may be in better health, but it is not able to drag shipping out of the doldrums in the short term.”

Elsewhere it was noted, “We are heading for a low level of activity in all markets. With sanctions on Russia and Iran, and fighting in Iraq and Syria and elsewhere, people are spending less money, which results in fewer cargo movements.”

The cost of meeting the growing regulatory burden in the shipping industry was high on the list of concerns expressed by respondents, one of whom noted, “The ballast water treatment legislation hangs like a dark cloud over all technical ship managers. This represents a huge investment accompanied by a high level of risk.” Another observed, “Regulation is becoming stricter, and now accounts for a greater slice of operational expenses than it did a few years ago. This is bad. But it is the only way to push older tonnage out of the market.”

Another respondent emphasised, “There seems to be a lack of willingness to acknowledge the negligible level of pollution caused by shipping in relation to the volume of merchandise which is shipped globally.” Other comments included, “New EU environmental regulations will have a knock-on effect beyond the primary maritime industries,” and, “Freight rates will not compensate completely for the additional cost involved in operating on low-sulphur fuel.”

Responses to the survey were completed before the announcement of the bankruptcy filing of OW Bunker, the industry’s largest fuel supplier. But a number of comments referred to the significant role played by fuel costs in the fortunes of the shipping industry, such as the respondents who noted, “High fuel costs and operating costs kill small shipowners,” and, “Bunker rates will fall still further.” Another pointed out, “Bunker prices are currently low but, with new sulphur regulations coming in, customers are receiving a very mixed message. Nobody knows what the fuel price will be in six months’ time.”

Elsewhere it was noted, “New fuel types developed to achieve environmental compliance will have a major impact on vessel operations, but there is great uncertainty about how many incompatible variants will be available on the market. Vessels operating on a worldwide basis will face fuel compatibility challenges.”

Meanwhile, a number of respondents warned that there were still too many ships available for the cargoes on offer. “As long as an insufficient level of old tonnage is being scrapped,” said one, “and until investors in newbuildings get a grip, the situation will continue to get worse.” Another observed, “It is already six years since the downturn in the freight markets and, despite there being no ground for a sustained upturn, new tonnage continues to be ordered. We have no explanation for this.”

Elsewhere it was pointed out, “Over-ordering will continue to slow the rate of recovery for the foreseeable future, but this will not stop owners buying while vessels are so cheap.” Another respondent said, “Given the overarching fundamental problem of overcapacity, every new ship entering the market will add to the lingering fear of a collapse in freight rates.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next twelve months was down marginally on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, from 5.4 to 5.3, the lowest figure recorded in this respect since August 2012. Despite this, the figures for brokers, managers and charterers were all up, in the case of the first two by two points to 4.7 and 5.8 respectively, and in the case of the latter by one point, from 5.5 to 5.6. Expectations on the part of owners in this regard, meanwhile, were down from 5.6 to 5.1.

Forty percent of managers, as opposed to 38 per cent last time, rated the likelihood of making a new investment over the next twelve months at 7.0 out of 10.0 or higher, while 38 percent of charterers (up from 21 percent in August 2014) were of like mind. Meanwhile, the 36 percent of owners anticipating making a new investment over the coming year this time was down on the previous figure of 41 percent.

Geographically, expectation levels of major investments were unchanged in Asia at 5.2, but down in Europe, from 5.4 to 5.2, and from 5.6 to 5.3 in North America, where 33 percent of respondents rated the likelihood of making a new investment over the next twelve months at 7.0 out of 10.0 or higher, as opposed to 22 percent in the previous survey.

Comments from respondents in this regard focused largely on the growth of private equity funding in shipping. One said, “The ongoing attack on shipping by private equity investors and outsiders is still active. Until this stops, shipping does not stand a chance of producing decent returns for the historic shipowner who invests in shipping for the long term. With low yields still in place around the world, returns required by public companies and private equity investors are tragically low, so they invest in projects they really shouldn't be investing in. In addition, the new Master Limited Partnership structure is reducing required returns still further. Shipping has no place in the MLP world.”

Demand trends, competition and finance costs, in that order, once again featured as the top three factors cited by respondents overall as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming twelve months. The overall numbers for demand trends were up from last time from 23 percent to 25 percent, while those for competition and finance costs were unchanged at 20 percent and 14 percent respectively. Tonnage supply (down one percentage point to 13 percent) featured in fourth place, while operating costs (unchanged at 10 percent) and fuel costs (down 2 percentage points to a four-year low of 7 percent) featured in fifth and sixth places respectively.

Demand trends, up 4 percentage points to 27 percent, remained the number one performance-affecting factor for owners. Tonnage supply (unchanged at 18 percent) and competition (down one percentage point to 17 percent) featured in second and third places respectively. For managers, meanwhile, competition (down 3 percentage points to 18 percent) remained in first place, while demand trends (up 2 percentage points to 17 percent) replaced finance costs (down 2 percentage points to 15 percent) in second place. For charterers, competition (up 15 percentage points to 31 percent) pushed demand trends (up by 5 percentage points to 30 percent) into second place, with finance costs (unchanged at 16 percent) in third position.

Geographically, demand trends were the most significant factor for respondents in Asia (unchanged at 20 percent), Europe (up 3 percentage point to 27 percent) and North America (up 9 percentage points to 37 percent). Competition was the second most significant performance-affecting factor in Asia (down 2 percentage points to 19 percent), Europe (up one percentage point to 20 percent) and in North America (unchanged at 20 percent). In both Asia (up by one percentage point to 14 percent) and North America (down by 2 percentage points to 13 percent), finance costs featured in third position, while in Europe it was tonnage supply (unchanged at 15 percent) which occupied third place.

One respondent noted succinctly, “There is too much competition, too many ships, and not enough cargo.” Another observed, “If continued access to low-cost ship finance persists and encourages still more owners to order additional tonnage - especially in the tramp shipping sector - the prospect of a sustained freight market recovery taking hold will recede even further into the distance.”

The number of respondents overall who expected finance costs to increase over the next twelve months was up by one percentage point to 40 percent. For both charterers and managers, the increase was 9 percentage points to 38 percent and 45 percent respectively, while for owners there was a one percentage point increase to 40 percent. Brokers (down from 44 percent to 36 percent) were the only category of main respondent to record a lower expectation of higher finance costs.

The number of respondents in Asia anticipating an increase in the cost of finance was up by 3 percentage points to 48 percent, Europe was unchanged at 35 percent, and in North America there was an 11 percentage-point fall to 56 percent.

One respondent said, “In some cases, little if any of the financing loan will have been paid off against ships which are now approaching their first special survey and which will have suffered a huge depreciation in value due to age and the current low market.” Another noted, “There is concern about the influence wielded by irresponsible hedge funds which do not understand the nature of the business and the risks involved.”

Turning to the freight markets, there was a fall in the number of respondents anticipating higher rates in the tanker, dry bulk and container ship trades.

The number of respondents overall expecting higher rates in the tanker sector over the next twelve months fell by one percentage point to 40 percent. The views of owners (up 10 percentage points to 51 percent) differed greatly in this regard from those of managers (down 7 percentage points to 36 percent), charterers (down 5 percentage points to 33 percent) and brokers (down by 28 percentage points to 30 percent).

Geographically, the prospects for increased tanker rates were up in Asia (by one percentage point to 41 percent) and in North America (from 29 percent to 44 percent) but down in Europe, from 42 percent to 38 percent.

One respondent said, “Overtonnaging in the tanker sector will greatly affect rates for years to come, even if there is real economic growth of the sort we need. The market is ever more unpredictable.”

In the dry bulk sector, meanwhile, there was a 12 percentage-point fall, to 35 percent, in the overall numbers anticipating rate increases. Just 36 percent of charterers, compared to 64 percent last time, thought that dry bulk rates would go up over the coming year. The numbers for all other main respondents were also down, in the case of brokers by 24 percent to 19 percent, and in the case of managers by 10 percent to 33 percent. Fifty percent of owners, compared to 55 percent last time, expected rates to increase.

Geographically, the prospects for increased dry bulk rates were down in Asia by 17 percentage points to 38 percent, and in Europe, from 47 percent to 35 percent. Such prospects in North America, meanwhile, were unchanged at 14 per cent.

“There is oversupply in the world bulker fleet for the available cargo supply,” noted one respondent. “If demand for raw and or semi-raw materials does not increase, we can write off another year.”

In the container ship market, meanwhile, the number of respondents expecting rates to increase over the coming twelve months was down by 6 percentage points to 25 percent. The number of charterers anticipating higher rates was down by 15 percentage points on last time to 25 percent, while for owners the drop was from 42 percent to 40 percent. Managers (up from 18 percent to 22 percent) were the only category of main respondent more confident this time than in August 2014 of higher container ship rates over the coming year. Geographically, expectations of improved container ship rates were unchanged in Asia at 32 percent, but down in in Europe from 34 percent to 23 percent.

Moore Stephens shipping partner, Richard Greiner, says, “Confidence in the shipping industry is at its lowest level for two years, just nine months after reaching a six-year high. A rating of 5.7 out of 10.0 may still be reasonably good in comparison with many other industries, but shipping’s failure to build on the growth in confidence reported in 2013 and early 2014 is undeniably a disappointment.

“The main reason for this may well be the one advanced by the respondent to our survey who complained of ‘too much competition, too many ships, and not enough cargo.’ Add to that the adverse effect which those three factors have on freight rates, and you have some measure of the problems currently facing the industry.

“Meanwhile, shipping continues to pay for the very international nature of the business which, perversely, is also its strength. Ongoing political unrest involving the Middle East and Ukraine does nothing to encourage growth in seaborne trade, while the global economic recovery which appeared to be under way at the beginning of the year seems to have stalled in a number of countries. The Japanese economy is in recession, France has been cast in some circles in the unfamiliar role of the sick man of Europe, and even the newly prosperous economies of China and India are currently performing below expectation.

“The cost of existing and impending regulation in shipping is another problem which is international in nature. Such costs were a recurring theme in the responses to our survey. Sulphur emissions regulations will make shipping an even cleaner and greener industry than it already is, and will encourage the development of more eco-friendly tonnage, but they come at a hefty price. Even that, however, may be small change compared to achieving compliance with the BWT convention which is now very close to ratification. To all this must be added a predicted rise in operating costs of almost three percent this year and next. But it is not all bad news.

“Shipping is still attracting investment. It may not be the type of investment which die-hard traditionalists would prefer, but private equity investors are not known for throwing their money away on lost causes. Oil (and therefore bunker) prices continue to fall, which should have a positive effect on voyage expenses for as long as it lasts. Meanwhile, cargo continues to move, if not always in the volumes and at the rates the industry would like.

“Shipping confidence began 2014 on a high. It is evident that, for now, some of that confidence has been rendered fragile and replaced by a degree of uncertainty. Some of that uncertainty may be resolved in 2015 as the extent of regulatory costs becomes clearer, and the success of recent attempts to reduce overtonnaging can be reassessed. Nevertheless, the market is likely to remain volatile in 2015 as shipping attempts to meet the challenge of finding the right balance between risk and reward.”

The Moore Stephens Shipping Confidence Survey includes responses from key players worldwide in the international shipping industry to a targeted, web-based survey by the Moore Stephens Shipping Industry Group. Responses were received from owners, charterers, brokers, advisers, managers and others. Editors can apply for a copy of the survey by emailing chris@merlinco.com

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 667 offices of independent member firms in 105 countries, employing 27,081 people and generating revenues in 2013 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk

For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence softens amid concerns about overtonnaging

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell slightly during the three-month period to May 2014 but remain at their second-highest level for the past six years, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. Expectations of new investment were maintained over the three-month period, but the prospect for higher freight rates softened in the tanker and dry bulk sectors. Uncertainty over the likely effect of an increase in private equity funding, and the consequent potential impact on tonnage supply, meanwhile dominated the thoughts of respondents to the survey.

In May 2014, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 6.3 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high), compared to the 6.5 recorded in February 2014, which was the highest figure since the 6.8 recorded when the survey was launched in May 2008.

Ship managers (up from 6.4 in the previous survey to 6.5 this time) were the only category of main respondent to report an increase in confidence. Owners (down from 6.6 to 6.1), charterers (down from 6.5 to 6.1) and brokers (down from 6.4 to 6.0) were less confident than they were three months previously.

Geographically, confidence was stable in Asia at 6.4, but down in Europe and in North America, from 6.4 to 6.2 and from 7.1 to 6.5, respectively.

Despite the small overall decline in confidence levels, a number of respondents to the survey remained upbeat. “Levels of confidence are good, and are expected to improve,” said one, while another noted, “World trade seems to be improving, and shipping will benefit.” Others were slightly more guarded in their responses, however. One respondent said, “The market is improving, but there are still some smaller, financially weak companies likely to go bust.” Another observed, “We have noted slight improvements in the market and are confident that more significant growth will take place in the coming months,” while others still remarked, “Demand is still high, even though operational costs have tended to increase,” and, “The shipping markets are not stable at the moment, but will pick up shortly.”

“Confidence is lower today than at the start of the year, but still reasonably optimistic going forward,” said one respondent. “Some believe we are sailing out of the doldrums, while others believe we will never get out. Interesting times!” Another noted, “The market has improved slightly, but certainly not enough to start drinking champagne. The next few years will be difficult, and maybe the real recovery will be too little and come too late for some owners.”

Elsewhere it was noted, “The market has held up for longer in 2014 than it has in the past few years, but one can sense that it is slowing down now. Hopefully, though, we are now seeing the results of more vessels being scrapped, and rates should be more robust and won’t tumble over the quieter summer months.” Similarly, another respondent said, “Shipping is moving slowly at the moment and will continue in that vein over the summer months before increasing pace again later in the year.”

Concern about overtonnaging, meanwhile, continued apace. “The market is a little more stable, said one respondent, “but we need to stop ordering newbuildings, particularly in the medium-range tanker and platform supply vessel sectors.” Of like mind, another respondent cautioned, “The future is uncertain due to the fact that owners are still ordering too many ships. Also, economic factors are changing trade patterns once more, and the markets are likely to remain volatile, with a tendency towards downward movement, until 2016 and beyond.”

Continuing the theme, another respondent warned, “Concerns are growing about the number of newbuildings relative to the size of the existing fleet,” while another still emphasised, “We must not have large numbers of orders for new ships for the next two years, at least.” Summing up the feelings of a number of others, one respondent warned, “An improvement in the freight markets is long overdue, but more new tonnage is on order despite the general consensus that there is already an over-supply.” Offering a slightly different slant on the situation, it was observed elsewhere that, “A lot will depend on developments in the Far East, and on the ability of Chinese shipyards to meet their orderbooks in timely fashion and to be able to assist with financing.”

The increasing availability of non-traditional ship finance, and of private equity funding in particular, dominated the thoughts of a number of respondents. One said, “The biggest risk is that uneducated and inexperienced new capital is available to the industry, which could lead to a new period of over-supply.” In similar vein, another remarked, “A high degree of uncertainty hangs over the supply side equation, with private equity keen to engage, and the continuing risk of state-sponsored ordering.”

Elsewhere it was noted, “Thankfully, the IPO window seems to have closed slightly, but any reactivation on the part of private equity companies, or further investment in new ships by public companies, will be very detrimental in the long term to shipping markets. Collective lessons have not been learned. As long as interest rates are low and money is cheap, hard assets will be sought and once again too many ships will be built and in the process lay the foundations for a very depressed market for years ahead.” Another respondent emphasised, “Amid ongoing overcapacity, the trend towards private equity and other non-traditional ship finance significantly threatens any recovery which may otherwise materialise from stronger forward demand trends.”

“The increasing involvement of ‘other people’s money’,” it was noted elsewhere, “has been a major factor in the newbuilding order splurge over the last nine months. Will seaborne trade growth in the underlying major commodities support this, or is the industry suffering from another of its bouts of wishful thinking?” One respondent referred to the entry into the market of “speculators who will drive up order books and subsequently increase overcapacity,” while another warned, “Short-term, non-shipping investors ordering new ships, some with other people’s money, will increase tonnage supply for years to come.” Finally, it was noted, “We have a new brand of so-called owners, or rather investors ordering tonnage on the basis of spur-of-the-moment decisions.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next twelve months was unchanged on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, at 5.8, which equals the highest figure since the rating of 6.0 recorded in August 2010. The figure for managers was up on last time, from 6.0 to 6.2, and for charterers, from 6.3 to 6.4. But owners were slightly down on last time, from 5.9 to 5.8, as were brokers, from 5.4 to 5.2.

Sixty-eight per cent per cent of charterers (up from 50 per cent last time) rated the likelihood of making a new investment over the next twelve months at 7.0 out of 10.0 or higher. The numbers of owners and managers of like mind were 43 per cent and 56 per cent respectively, up on the corresponding figures of 47 per cent and 43 per cent last time.

Geographically, expectation levels of major investments were up in Asia, from 5.7 to 5.9 (the highest figure for four years), but down in Europe, from 5.8 to 5.7. Meanwhile, there was an increase, from 5.1 to 5.9, in North America, where 62 per cent of respondents rated the likelihood of making a new investment over the next twelve months at 7.0 out of 10.0 or higher.

One respondent said, “Recent new investment in over-built shipping asset classes represents a threat to shipping,” while another noted, “Potential buyers are finding it difficult to secure loans to buy ships.”

Demand trends, competition and finance costs once again featured as the top three factors cited by respondents overall as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming twelve months. The overall number for demand trends was up by 2 percentage points to 23 per cent, while competition was up by one percentage point to 20 per cent. Meanwhile, the number of respondents citing finance costs fell from 16 per cent to 15 per cent. Tonnage supply (unchanged at 13 per cent) featured in fourth place, while operating costs (down from 11 per cent to 10 per cent) and fuel costs (up one percentage point to 10 per cent) featured in equal fifth place.

Demand trends, up 5 percentage points to 27 per cent, remained the number one performance-affecting factor for owners. Finance costs, down 3 percentage point to 15 per cent, were replaced in second position by tonnage supply, unchanged at 17 per cent. For managers, meanwhile, competition (up 2 percentage points to 21 per cent) remained in first place. Operating costs, down 2 percentage points to 14 per cent, dropped to third place behind finance costs, unchanged at 15 per cent. For charterers, demand trends, up from 22 per cent to 30 per cent, featured in first place, ahead of competition (21 per cent) and finance costs (16 per cent).

Geographically, demand trends were the most significant factor for respondents in Asia (up from 20 per cent to 22 per cent), Europe (up 2 percentage points to 24 per cent) and North America (down from 24 per cent to 21 per cent). Competition was the second most significant performance-affecting factor in Asia (down one percentage point to 19 per cent), Europe (up from 18 per cent to 19 per cent), and North America (down from 23 per cent to 17 per cent). In Asia and North America, finance costs featured in third place, while for Europe that slot was occupied by tonnage supply.

One respondent noted, “The cost of paying and retaining professional staff remains high.” Another remarked, “The most alarming thing is the poor quality of crew.” A number of respondents were concerned about the cost of meeting regulatory requirements. One said, “Sulphur emissions restrictions and potential ballast water management systems costs are major challenges for the near future.”

The number of respondents overall who expected finance costs to increase over the next twelve months was unchanged at 41 per cent. The number of respondents expecting finance costs to come down, meanwhile, rose from 6 per cent to 13 per cent, the highest figure since August 2010. Managers were the only main category to record a fall in the numbers of respondents expecting higher finance costs (down from 42 per cent to 39 per cent). The figure for owners was up from 38 per cent to 42 per cent, for brokers from 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and for charterers from 35 per cent to 48 per cent.

The number of respondents in Asia anticipating an increase in the cost of finance was up by 8 percentage points to 56 per cent, while in Europe the numbers were down from 37 per cent to 34 per cent. In North America, meanwhile, the numbers anticipating higher finance costs rose from 29 per cent to 62 per cent.

“The banks need to change their policy,” said one respondent. “They have to support shipping, the biggest transport industry in the world, and lend against secondhand assets.” Another observed, “There is a lack of belief in the banking system.”

Turning to the freight markets, there was a fall in the number of respondents anticipating higher rates in the tanker and dry bulk trades, while expectations in the container ship sector remained unchanged from last time.

The number of respondents overall who expressed an expectation of higher rates in the tanker sector over the next twelve months was down by 2 percentage points to 41 per cent, which is nevertheless the second-highest figure since May 2011. Charterers recorded a 29 per cent fall in this regard, from 50 per cent to 21 per cent, while owners’ expectations were also down, from 42 per cent to 37 per cent. Brokers and managers, meanwhile, were more confident, their expectations of higher tanker rates increasing by 12 and 3 percentage points respectively to figures of 48 per cent and 46 per cent.

Geographically, the prospects for increased tanker rates were deemed lower this time by respondents in Asia (down from 43 per cent to 40 per cent), and in Europe (down from 43 per cent to 41 per cent). In North America, however, there was a 29 percentage-point increase to 50 per cent.

One respondent maintained, “The tanker and bulk carrier sectors are heavily influenced by low trading demand, and most trading routes worldwide are currently overtonnaged.” Another said, “There are too many newbuildings scheduled for delivery in the medium-range tanker sector.” Elsewhere it was noted, “The effects of rapid political developments within the EU have been under-estimated, and this will have an impact on tanker activity in the Western Europe/Mediterranean range.”

In the dry bulk sector, meanwhile, there was a 5 percentage-point fall, to 53 per cent, in the overall numbers of those anticipating rate increases. Just 42 per cent of charterers, compared to the survey high of 76 per cent last time, thought that rates would increase over the coming year. The numbers for owners were also down (from 59 per cent to 57), as were those for managers (from 57 per cent to 45 per cent) and brokers (from 62 per cent to 59 per cent. Expectations of higher dry bulk rates over the next twelve months were unchanged in Asia at 49 per cent, down in Europe from 64 per cent to 55 per cent, but up in North America from 47 per cent to 64 per cent.

One respondent said, “We are quite confident that, in the coming months, the dry cargo market overall will slowly but surely improve, after about six years of crisis.” Elsewhere it was noted, “The orderbook for bulk carriers is still quite high, but we believe there will be more scrapping due to the inefficiency of main engines, the price of fuel and the cost of retrofitting scrubbers.”

In the container ship market, meanwhile, the number of respondents expecting rates to increase over the coming twelve months was unchanged at 34 per cent. All main categories of respondent, with the exception of charterers, were more confident of rate increases this time than they were three months ago, with owners up from 34 per cent to 36 per cent, managers up from 33 per cent to 35 per cent, and brokers from 36 per cent to 41 per cent. For charterers, however, the figure was down from 50 per cent to 46 per cent.

Geographically, expectations of improved container ship rates were unchanged at 38 per cent in Asia, and up in Europe (from 31 per cent to 32 per cent) and in North America (from 27 per cent to 30 per cent).

Moore Stephens shipping partner, Richard Greiner, says, “The small dip in confidence revealed by the latest survey is a disappointment. But it has to be viewed in context. Confidence is still at its second-highest level for four years, and the number of respondents planning to make a major investment over the next twelve months is as high as it has been at any time since August 2010. It is difficult to think of another industry, similarly exposed to political, commercial, economic and environmental pressures, which has retained the confidence of its customers and investors to the same degree.

“Ironically, it is the willingness of investors – and new investors, at that – to put their money into shipping which may lie behind the recent small dip in confidence. Private equity funding dominated the comments of respondents to an extent seldom seen in connection with any other issue during the six-year life of the survey to date. Many see the growth of private equity finance in shipping as a threat to longer-term viability. It is true that this type of funding is likely to be short-term by shipping industry standards, and shipping is an industry which best rewards long-term investors. But, in the absence of sufficient bank funding of the type which has been the traditional mainstay of shipping finance over the years, other options are required to bridge the gap.

“Shipping is a recovering market which has proved its resilience. This is bound to attract interest from new, outside investors. That will not sit well with those who believe that shipping should be financed by shipping people and their banks. But there have already been a number of recent examples of successful shipping companies being formed by private equity investors at a low point in the shipping cycle. It may be that the recent easing of asset prices will be seen by private equity as an opportunity for further investment in shipping.

“The fact is that shipping needs new investment, and that can no longer be provided solely by the banks. Those who fear the repercussions of going into business with investors who don’t know the shipping industry should seek professional financial advice before making a commitment. Private equity investors who want to know more about shipping before taking the plunge, meanwhile, should do the same.

“Elsewhere, the survey revealed some familiar areas of concern, not least in connection with overtonnaging, and the effect that the entry into the market of large numbers of newbuildings will have on freight rates. Another recurring area of concern involves the cost of achieving regulatory compliance, in particular with the ballast water management convention, and of meeting the escalating cost of daily operation. These are the bread-and-butter issues of shipping, and bread and butter is expensive in today’s industry. They are also the issues that putative private equity investors will have to factor into their decision-making.

“Some people are already calling this period in the shipping cycle the recovery that never arrived. This works well as a sound-bite, but takes no account of the improved levels of confidence we have seen recently. Shipping industry confidence today is vastly improved compared to where it was five years ago. As one of our respondents noted, it may not yet to be time to break out the champagne. But neither is it time to subsist solely on beer.”

The Moore Stephens Shipping Confidence Survey includes responses from key players worldwide in the international shipping industry to a targeted, web-based survey by the Moore Stephens Shipping Industry Group. Responses were received from owners, charterers, brokers, advisers, managers and others. Editors can apply for a copy of the survey by emailing chris@merlinco.com

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 667 offices of independent member firms in 105 countries, employing 27,081 people and generating revenues in 2013 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk