Shipping confidence hits 18-month high

Confidence in the shipping industry rose in the last quarter to its highest level for 18 months, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from leading shipping adviser and accountant BDO.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the survey was 6.4 out of 10.0, compared to 5.8 Q3 2019. This is the highest rating since the same level of confidence was recorded in May 2018, and it is necessary to go back to February 2014 in order to see confidence at a higher level.

Confidence on the part of both managers and owners was up to 6.9 out of 10.0 from the levels recorded in the previous survey of 5.9 and 6.4 respectively. But confidence in the broking sector was down from 5.1 to 3.9, the lowest rating for this category of respondent since the survey was launched in May 2008. Confidence was down in Asia from 6.8 to 6.0 but up in Europe and in North America from 5.7 to 6.2 and from 4.3 to 6.8 respectively.

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the coming year was unchanged from last time at 5.5 out of 10.0. Owners’ confidence was down from 6.5 to 6.3, while that of brokers dropped from 4.4 to 2.9. Meanwhile the expectations of managers held steady at 6.1. Expectations were down in Asia and in Europe, from 6.6 to 5.7 and from 5.4 to 5.1 respectively.

The number of respondents expecting finance costs to increase over the coming year was up from 25% to 37%. Whereas 57% of managers (up from 20% last time) anticipated dearer finance over the next 12 months, just 32% of owners (albeit up from 27% last time) thought likewise.

In the freight markets, the number of respondents anticipating higher tanker rates over the coming year was up from 43% to 46%, with little or no movement in the expectations of main respondent categories compared to the previous survey. In the dry bulk sector, overall expectations of rate increases were up from 39% to 50%, and in the case of brokers alone from 20% to 71%. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates, meanwhile, rose by 10 percentage points to 29%. Net rate sentiment was positive in all three main tonnage categories.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to estimate where the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate would stand in 12 months’ time. 24% of respondents put the figure at 1.50%, while estimates of 1.75% and 1.25% were favoured by 17% and 16% of respondents respectively. 15% of respondents predicted that the rate would reach 2.00%, while 11% predicted a figure of 2.25%. Overall, 16% of respondents put the likely rate at no higher than 1.00%.

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at BDO, says, “It is not far short of six years since confidence in the industry has been higher, and appetite for investment remains steady despite volatile economic conditions. This is despite general ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and notwithstanding specific concerns about a variety of issues including Brexit and President Trump’s impeachment inquiry.

“Shipping is not for the faint-hearted, and committed long-term players remain the most likely to achieve the best returns. Our latest survey revealed an increased expectation over the next 12 months of dearer finance costs. Such costs remain one of the most significant performance-influencing factors for our respondents. But the cost of regulatory compliance is slowly gaining in importance, and will continue to do so. IMO 2020 was recently categorised by one commentator as a ‘perfect storm’ for litigators. It is also part of a much larger commitment by the shipping industry to enhancing its green credentials, and in the process becoming a more technologically advanced and environmentally responsible sector. As such, it should be eminently attractive to investors.”

Note to editors
The BDO (formerly Moore Stephens LLP) Shipping & Transport team has extensive experience delivering accountancy, tax and advisory services to the sector worldwide.

BDO delivers key information and insights to the shipping community, including the annual OpCost report, the quarterly Shipping Confidence Survey and a host of thought leadership on topical issues, such as regulatory developments and market conditions.

https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/industries/shipping-and-transport


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Shipping confidence up despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

Confidence in the shipping industry has risen in the last three months despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from leading shipping adviser and accountant BDO.

The average confidence level rose to 6.2 out of maximum score of 10.0 this quarter compared to 6.0 in Q4 2018.

Confidence was up in Europe, from 6.1 to 6.3, and in North America, from 5.2 to 5.6. In Asia, meanwhile, there was a drop in overall confidence levels to 5.8 from the 12-month high of 6.3 recorded in the previous quarter.

Brokers were behind much of the increase in confidence. Their score was up from 5.2 to 5.9. The rating for owners and managers was down slightly from 6.4 to 6.3 and from 6.0 to 5.8 respectively. Charterers’ confidence was also down, from 6.8 to 6.0, although this still compared favourably with the rating of 5.0 returned 12 months ago.

The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating for all respondents of 6.8 out of 10.0.

According to the BDO quarterly survey, the likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down from 5.5 to 5.3 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence in this regard reached a record high of 7.3. Brokers’ confidence was also up, from 4.1 to 4.9. However, owners recorded a fall from 6.3 to 5.4. Managers’ ratings were unchanged at 5.6.Expectations were up in Europe from 5.2 to 5.3, but down in Asia from 6.2 to 5.2.

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was down from 67% to 48%, the lowest figure since August 2016. The figures for all categories of respondent were down, in the case of charterers from 80% to 33%.

Demand trends were cited by 26% of respondents as the factor most likely to influence performance over the next 12 months. Competition (19%) and finance costs (13%) featured in second and third place respectively in this context.

Net freight rate sentiment was positive in all three main tonnage categories identified in the BDO survey, with 51% of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market. This represents a drop of 9 percentage points on the previous survey score of 60%. Respondents expecting lower tanker rates fell from 9% to 6% this quarter.

In the dry bulk sector, expectations of rate increases were up strongly from 38% to 52%, while the numbers anticipating lower rates climbed slightly to 13% from 11%. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates rose by one percentage point to 26%, whilst those expecting lower container ship rates increased to 25% from 23%.

When asked to predict where crude oil prices would be in 12 months’ time, 37% of respondents in BDO’s survey opted for the $60-$69/barrel range. This figure is almost identical to the figure of 36% from February 2018. 17% of respondents opted for the $50-$59/barrel range compared to the 19% who did so last year, while 28% favoured the $70-$79/barrel range which was unchanged from 12 months ago.

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at BDO, says, “It is encouraging to begin the year with a small uptick in confidence. Despite continuing doubts and fears about trade wars, China’s GDP, uncertainty over exchange rates, President Trump’s decision-making, Brexit and general political instability in many parts of the world, shipping can still find reasons to be cheerful.

“Net freight rate sentiment remains positive in all three main tonnage categories, and there is a growing recognition that shipping is emerging from an extremely difficult period as a leaner and greener industry.

“A number of respondents noted that the financial difficulties faced by many companies in recent years have changed the dynamics of the industry, with an increase in consolidation, restructuring and mergers & acquisitions.

“At the same time, there appears to be general recognition that the likes of the IMO 2020 and Ballast Water Management regulations will help rid the industry of poorly maintained tonnage and increase both the viability and the pedigree of the world fleet.

“This will also appeal to potential investors looking to back environmentally compliant and technologically savvy industries. It seems that the shipping industry must prioritise achieving the benefits of regulatory compliance and technological innovation over the coming years.”

The BDO (formerly Moore Stephens LLP) Shipping & Transport team has extensive experience delivering accountancy, tax and advisory services to the sector worldwide.

BDO delivers key information and insights to the shipping community, including the annual OpCost report, the quarterly Shipping Confidence Survey and a host of thought leadership on topical issues, such as regulatory developments and market conditions.

https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/industries/shipping-and-transport


BDO LLP
BDO LLP operates in 17 locations across the UK, employing nearly 5,000 people offering tax, audit and assurance, and a range of advisory services. BDO LLP has underlying revenues of £590m and is the UK member firm of the BDO international network.

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Shipping confidence at highest level for three-and-a-half years

Shipping confidence held steady at its highest rating in the past three-and-a-half years in the three months to end-November 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents was unchanged at the level of 6.2 out of 10.0 recorded in the previous survey in August 2017. Confidence on the part of charterers was significantly up, from 4.7 to 7.7, the highest rating recorded for this category of respondent since the survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating of 6.8. Managers (up from 5.8 to 6.1) were also more optimistic, while brokers’ confidence was unchanged at 6.3. The rating for owners, however, fell from 6.5 to 6.4. Confidence levels were down in Asia, from 6.4 to 5.7, and unchanged in Europe and North America, at 6.3 and 5.8 respectively.

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down from 5.4 to 5.3 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence, however, was up from 4.0 to 6.2. Expectations on the part of owners and brokers were up from 5.8 to 5.9 and from 4.4 to 5.3 respectively, but down from 5.4 to 5.3 for managers. Asian respondents (down from 5.9 to 5.0) were less confident in this regard, but in North America the rating was up from 4.9 to 5.4. In Europe, expectations held steady at 5.2.

Although overall expectations of making major investments over the next 12 months were marginally down on the three-year high recorded in the previous survey, several respondents saw encouraging signs of recovery, and potential for further improvement, particularly in the dry bulk sector. One respondent said: “Undeniably, things are a little better, but there is not such a significant improvement that we can break out the champagne and celebrate a recovery.”

59% of respondents expected finance costs to increase over the coming year, up from 50% last time to equal the highest figure since October 2008. Owners’ expectations were up from 48% to 54%, while the increase for charterers was from 67% to 83%, and for brokers from 42% to 60%. Managers, meanwhile, recorded a fall from 62% to 61%.

Despite a fall from 27% to 23%, demand trends continued to be the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months followed by competition and finance costs. One respondent said: “Shipping continues to be volatile and unstable, with an oversupply of tonnage, and new finance continuing to pour in, while geopolitical issues and new regulations are causing disruption.”

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was down by 1% on the previous survey to 44%, while there was a one percentage-point fall, to 13%, in those anticipating lower rates. There was a six percentage-point fall, to 50%, in the numbers expecting higher rates in the dry bulk sector, and a five percentage-point increase to 12% in the numbers anticipating lower rates. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates dropped by four percentage points to 36%, while there was a two percentage-point fall, to 15%, in those anticipating lower container ship rates.

Net sentiment was positive in all the main tonnage categories. It was unchanged in the tanker market at +31, but down in the dry bulk market from +49 to +38, and in the container ship sector from +23 to +21.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to estimate where the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate would stand in 12 months’ time. 35% put the figure at 1.50%, with 24% opting for 1.75%. While 6% of respondents thought the figure would be 2.00%, 19% opted for 1.25%. Levels of 1.00% and less than 1.00% were each cited by 8% of all respondents, just 1% of whom expected the rate to be more than 2.00%. One respondent said: “Increased economic uncertainty, relations with North Korea, and Iran trade restrictions are among the factors which will increase the risk level in the market and lead to higher interest rates.” Another simply said: “Rates will continue to rise until there is a market correction.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “Confidence is at its highest level for three-and-a-half years, testament to the industry’s remarkable durability.

“Charterers are leading the way in terms of improved confidence and appetite for new investment. There is optimism in the dry bulk trades, and evidence of continuing improved confidence in the gas sector. The Baltic Dry Index, meanwhile, has risen by over 50% in the past six months, and net sentiment in all three main tonnage categories remains positive.

“Not all our respondents were upbeat and uncertainty persists, for example, over how and when to comply with the Ballast Water Management Convention and the true extent of cyber-crime. But the portents, overall, are encouraging.

“A slowdown in newbuilding activity has started to redress the imbalance in supply and demand, and that should be reflected in improved freight rates. There is an appetite for investment, and finance is available. The shipping recovery might not yet be fully under way, but 2017 may come to be regarded as the year when the downward spiral was halted.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence hits three-year high

Shipping confidence reached its equal highest rating in the past three years in the three months to end-May 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the survey was up to 6.1 out of 10.0 from the 5.6 recorded in the previous survey in February 2017. Increased confidence was recorded by all main categories of respondent to the survey, which launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

In the case of brokers, the confidence rating rose from 4.6 to 6.4, while for owners the increase was from 5.6 to 6.1. Confidence on the part of charterers and managers, meanwhile, was up from 5.9 to 6.4, and from 6.0 to 6.2 respectively. Confidence levels were unchanged in Asia at 5.6, but up in Europe, from 5.5 to 6.2, and in North America, from 6.1 to 6.4.

A number of respondents expressed cautious optimism about the industry’s fortunes over the next 12 months, based largely on perceived increased levels of ship demolition and a rationalisation of over-ambitious newbuilding plans. This helped increase expectations of major investments being made over the next 12 months. Concern persisted, however, over political uncertainty, overtonnaging in certain trades, depressed oil prices and a potential dearth of quality seafarers.

One respondent said, “Shipping people are eternally optimistic, with one week of good news seeming to help them forget eight terrible years of hardship and financial loss.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was up from 4.9 out of 10.0 in the previous survey to 5.4, the highest level since August 2014. There was increased confidence on the part of all major respondents, in the case of charterers up to a level of 6.3 from 5.8 in February 2017. Owners and managers, meanwhile, each registered a confidence level of 5.9, up from 5.1 and 5.6 respectively last time. Confidence on the part of brokers was up from 3.4 to 4.4.

50% of respondents expected finance costs to increase over the coming year, compared to 54% in the previous survey. Owners’ expectations fell from 57% to 48%, while managers were also down, from 61% to 57%. More brokers and charterers, however, anticipated costlier finance – 63% of brokers (against 41% last time) and 57% of charterers (compared to 47% in February 2017). “The financial support needed to boost the markets is not yet at expected levels,” noted one respondent, “but we believe that the situation will improve in the coming months as demand increases.”

Demand trends, cited by 26% of respondents, continued to be the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, followed by competition (22%) and finance costs (14%). According to one respondent, “Larger companies are targeting their smaller competitors in order to minimise competition and secure a stronger position in the market.”

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months was up on the previous survey in all three main tonnage categories. In the tanker market, 32% of respondents anticipated improved rates, as opposed to 25% last time, while the number anticipating lower tanker rates fell from 28% to 16%. Meanwhile, there was a 14 percentage-point rise, to 58%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, the highest figure for three years.

In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates rose from 31% to 46%, while there was a six percentage-point fall, to 12%, in those anticipating lower container ship rates. Net sentiment was up in the tanker market from -3 in February 2017 to +16 this time, while the increases in the dry bulk and container ship trades respectively were from +33 to +50 and from +13 to +34.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked to estimate the level they expected the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to be at in 12 months’ time. More than half (52%) felt the BDI would reach a level of between 1000 and 1499, while a quarter (25%) put the likely figure at between 1500 and 1999. “Healthy volumes of cargo are being moved,” said one respondent, “but there are too many ships around.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “The survey was launched in 2008, on the very cusp of one of the most protracted and severe global economic downturns, with a confidence rating of 6.8. In our latest survey, the figure stands at 6.1 which, given geopolitical, economic and industry developments, must be seen as a robust rating. Moreover, confidence today of making a major new investment is the highest it has been for almost three years. The positive sentiment on freight rates is welcome, although this must be weighed against the lows to which they have fallen and from which they must continue to recover.

“Even for an industry which is familiar with the volatile nature of international commerce, shipping’s ability to survive adversity is worthy of comment. Our latest survey found many of our respondents in watchful mode, mindful of the fact that there are still too many ships, but encouraged to believe that increased demolition and more pragmatism by industry stakeholders will help to redress this imbalance. Respondents also remain cognisant of the impact which geopolitical developments can have on shipping, and it will be instructive to see what effect all this will have on industry confidence in our next quarterly survey.”

The full survey report can be downloaded from the Moore Stephens website:
http://www.moorestephens.co.uk/news-views/june-2017/confidence-hits-three-year-high

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 108 countries, employing 27,997 people and generating revenues in 2016 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Optimistic charterers help boost shipping confidence to 15-month high

Shipping confidence improved for the third successive quarter in the three months to end-November 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

In November 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.6 out of 10.0, equalling the highest rating since August 2015. All main categories of respondent were more confident than in August 2016, when the overall rating was 5.4. Charterers’ confidence this time increased by 2.0 points, to 6.8, the highest figure in the life of the survey for such respondents. The confidence of owners was up from 5.3 to 5.4, of brokers from 4.5 to 5.6, and of managers from 6.0 to 6.4. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

Confidence was up in Asia, from 5.5 to 5.7, in Europe from 5.2 to 5.4, and in North America from 5.8 to 5.9.

A number of respondents felt that the bottom of the cycle had been reached and that the only way was up. Particular concern was expressed about overtonnaging, insufficient recycling, and the cost of regulatory compliance. One respondent noted, “The oversupply of tonnage will cease when the banks write down bad loans and force owners to sell for scrap,” while another said, “The weak or unlucky will fold or be gobbled up, while the strong or the lucky will grow and succeed.”

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was unchanged, at 4.9 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence in this regard was up from 5.0 to 6.4, equalling its highest figure since August 2013. Owners’ expectations were also up, from 4.8 to 5.0, but those of managers and brokers were down, from 5.3 to 5.2 and from 4.1 to 3.8 respectively. According to one respondent, “It is hard to see how major investment to meet environmental regulations can be justified in the current climate.”

The number of respondents expecting finance costs to increase over the coming year rose from 35% to 53%, the highest level for five years. Owners’ expectations in this regard rose from 31% to 58%, their highest level since May 2011. The figures for brokers and managers were also up, from 47% to 53% and from 30% to 52%, respectively. Charterers were alone in not anticipating any increase in finance costs. “Major investment will be required over the next few years to meet increasingly stringent environmental regulations,” said one respondent, “at a time when earnings are on the floor and bank finance is hard to come by.”

Competition is expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, just ahead of demand trends, followed by finance costs and tonnage supply. One respondent said, “If demand remains weak, we don’t anticipate any improvement in the shipping markets over the next five years, particularly for dry bulk cargoes.”

The number of respondents expecting higher rates in the tanker market over the next 12 months rose by ten percentage points to 33%, the highest figure since August 2015, while the number anticipating lower tanker rates fell from 37% to 24%. Meanwhile, there was a three percentage-point rise, to 41%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector. In the container ship sector, the numbers expecting higher rates rose from 22% to 27%, but there was a five percentage-point increase, to 21%, in those anticipating lower rates. The net sentiment in the tanker markets was +9, while it was +31 in the dry bulk markets and +6 in the container ship trades.

In a stand-alone question, respondents were asked what they considered would be the most important source of funding for the installation of Ballast Water Management (BWM) systems by shipowners. Overall, on a weighted average basis, 21% of respondents felt that shipowner equity (shareholder funds) would provide the source of funding. Next came bank finance, at 19%, BWM system manufacturers (15%), shipyards (12%) and other non-bank finance (10%). One respondent said, “Financing BWM is almost impossible. Owners have no money for it.”

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “This is the third successive increase in shipping confidence recorded by our survey. So despite overtonnaging, weak freight rates, declining demand, insufficient recycling, Brexit, Syria, Trump, despite everything, shipping is still looking up, rather than down. This is not to deny the reality of today’s difficult market, or the sluggish economic climate. But it does say much for the strength of shipping’s backbone and the quality of its mettle.

“Those who can point to a long history in shipping will be better placed to gauge the severity and longevity of the current downturn than those with a shorter pedigree in the industry. But both will need access to finance and to other resources in order to meet the challenges which lie ahead. Not the least of these is the ongoing regulatory environmental compliance programme, even if implementation of the BWM convention may be caveated with potential delay and amendment for a little while longer.

“Many of our respondents felt that things can only get better. They are probably right. But for that to happen, freight rates will have to go up. Perhaps it is safer to say for the moment that, if we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 657 offices of independent member firms in 106 countries, employing 27,613 people and generating revenues in 2015 of $2.7 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk.


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP, London
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Shipping confidence rises for fourth successive quarter

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry increased in the three months ended May 2012, to reach their highest level since February 2011, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from leading accountant and shipping consultant Moore Stephens. This is the fourth successive quarter in which there has been an improvement in confidence, leading to an increased expectation of new investment on the part of respondents, despite an anticipated increase in the cost of finance over the next twelve months.

In May 2012, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.7 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high), compared to the figure of 5.5 recorded in the previous survey in February 2012, and to the 5.6 recorded one year previously, in May 2011.  The survey was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

The biggest increase in confidence was recorded by ship managers, up from 5.2 to 6.0 this time, the highest figure for this category of respondent since February 2011. Confidence among owners and charterers remained unchanged this time, at 5.6 and 5.0 respectively. Brokers (down from 5.6 to 5.2) were alone among all respondents in being less confident about the market than they were in February 2012. Confidence was up in Europe for the fourth successive quarter, from 5.3 to 5.6, stable in Asia at 5.7, and down in North America from 5.6 to 5.5.

A number of respondents were upbeat about prospects for the market, despite admitting that any recovery would have to start from a comparatively low base. “If we are still alive now, after all the vessels that have entered the market and all the banks that have pulled out, there is a good chance that better times await us,” said one. Some suggested that a recovery in the markets was achievable in the short term, typified by the comment from the respondent who noted, “The volume of business activity is expected to increase in the next quarter.” Most, however, were taking the longer view. “We will see the imbalance between tonnage supply and demand corrected in early 2014,” said one. “Until then, we hope to see ship operators, cargo interests and charterers exercising good supply-chain values based on reasonable freight and time charter rates in order to get the industry through these tough times”.

Respondents to the survey expressed a high level of concern about the global economy, and particularly about problems within the eurozone. One said, “The European economic crisis is worsening, leaving ship financing at the crossroads”. Two familiar causes of concern were again evident in the responses to the survey, the first of which was summed up by the respondent who emphasised, “There are too many ships coming onto the market”. One respondent foresaw a different kind of problem arising from the surfeit of tonnage, warning, “For the first time in a long while, shipping could face a situation where newbuildings currently being delivered may be rendered technically obsolete in five years’ time by new ships being ordered today which, due to technical innovations, may be up to 20 per cent cheaper to operate.”

Meanwhile, despite the recent fall in global oil prices, and consequently in the price of bunkers, fuel costs continued to occupy the thoughts of respondents. “The ultimate squeeze nowadays really comes from the cost of bunkers,” said one respondent. “On top of the high price of oil, refineries are producing less and less marine product, putting further pressure on bunker prices”.

The overall number of respondents expecting to make a major investment or significant development over the next twelve months rose, on a scale of 1 to 10, from 4.9 to 5.3, the highest figure since the 5.6 recorded in May 2011. All categories of respondent were more confident in this regard than in the previous survey, most notably charterers, whose expectation rating in respect of major investments was up from 4.9 to 5.8. The rating for owners was up from 5.2 to 5.6, and for managers from 5.2 to 5.5. Forty-five per cent of charterers, and 40 per cent of both owners and managers, assessed the likelihood of their making an investment at 7.0 out of 10.0 or higher. Expectation levels of major investments were up in all geographic areas covered by the survey, with the exception of North America (down from 5.0 to 4.5). The biggest increase was in Europe (up from 4.8 to 5.3).

One respondent said, “There will be excellent opportunities for cash buyers over the next 12 to 18 months, as banks increasingly foreclose or as distressed owners are forced to sell in order to survive”. Another noted, “There is an opportunity to invest in eco-friendly vessels at very low cost.”

Demand trends, competition and finance costs were the top three factors cited by respondents overall as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming twelve months. But the numbers in each category were down - in the case of demand trends from 22 per cent to 21 per cent, competition (down from 20 per cent to 18 per cent) and finance costs (down one percentage point to 16 per cent).  Fuel costs featured in fourth place, up from 12 per cent to 14 per cent, the second highest figure achieved in the life of the survey, behind only the 16 per cent recorded one year ago, in May 2011. Meanwhile, operating costs were cited by 12 per cent of respondents as a factor likely to influence performance significantly over the coming year, a three percentage-point increase on last time, and equal to the highest figure recorded for operating costs since the survey was launched in May 2008.

Fuel costs were in fact the most significant performance-influencing factors for charterers, up to 26 per cent from 23 per cent in February 2012, pushing demand trends (down from 24 per cent to 21 per cent) into second place. Competition – down significantly from 23 per cent to 16 per cent – was in third place.

Demand trends remained the number one performance-affecting factor for owners, unchanged at 21 per cent. Finance costs (unchanged at 18 per cent) were in second place, followed by competition, down one percentage point to 16 per cent. For managers, meanwhile, competition and demand trends (both down one percentage point this time to 18 per cent) occupied the top two places, with finance costs up one percentage point to 17 per cent in third place.

Geographically, demand trends remained the most significant factor for respondents in Asia (up from 22 per cent to 24 per cent) and in Europe (down from 22 per cent to 21 per cent). In Asia, fuel costs (16 per cent) supplanted finance costs in third place, behind competition (down from 21 per cent to 18 per cent) in second position. Fuel costs were also a significant factor in North America, where they were cited by 18 per cent of respondents. In Europe, finance costs (up from 18 per cent 19 per cent) featured in second place, ahead of competition, unchanged at 18 per cent.

There was a 2 percentage-point increase (from 49 per cent to 51 per cent) in the number of respondents overall who expected finance costs to increase over the next twelve months. The number of respondents who thought that finance costs would decrease over the coming year remained unchanged, meanwhile, at 8 per cent. The number of charterers who expected finance costs to rise was down 14 percentage points to 34 per cent, an all-time low in the life of the survey, not only for charterers but across all main categories of respondent. There was, however, greater expectation of higher finance costs on the part of owners (up from 46 per cent to 54 per cent) and managers (up from 45 per cent to 52 per cent). The number of brokers anticipating costlier finance was meanwhile down 7 percentage points to 47 per cent. One respondent complained, “We are completely hamstrung by banking and finance constraints”, while another emphasised, “The banks postpone much-needed action and keep on protecting bad owners by focusing on short-term cashflow”.  More respondents in both Asia and Europe were anticipating an increase in finance costs compared to last time (up from 49 per cent to 50 per cent, and from 48 per cent 52 per cent, respectively). The same was true of North America (up from 38 per cent to 48 per cent).

There was generally good news about the prospects for higher tanker and container ship rates over the coming year, even though one respondent - without specifying any particular sector - complained, “Brokers are not fighting for the best rates. They need to fix so many vessels per day that they no longer care about the levels at which they fix, and owners are suffering.”

The survey revealed an increased level of expectation of higher rates in the tanker sector than was the case three months previously. Overall, 40 per cent of respondents thought that rates would increase, as opposed to 35 per cent last time. Charterers were the notable exception. Just 18 per cent anticipated that rates would go up, compared to 35 per cent last time. Only once before in the life of the survey (12 per cent, in February 2009) has a lower figure been recorded across all main categories of respondent. The number of owners anticipating higher tanker rates was up from 34 per cent to 41 per cent, and of managers from 36 per cent to 41 per cent. Just 7 per cent of managers expected tanker rates to fall, a new survey low for this category of respondent. The expectation of higher rates was common across all the main geographical areas covered by the survey.

It was a similar story in the container ship market, where 34 per cent of respondents overall expected rates to go up, compared to 31 per cent in the previous survey. The number of respondents anticipating higher rates over the coming year was up in all categories, in the case of charterers by 15 percentage points to 41 per cent. For owners, the increase was from 28 per cent to 35 per cent, and for managers from 30 per cent to 31 per cent.

It was a different story in the dry bulk sector, however, where most of the indicators were down, in contrast to the previous survey, which saw a surge of optimism on the part of all respondents that rates would increase. Overall, 35 per cent of respondents this time expected dry bulk rates to go up over the coming year, as against 38 per cent in February 2012. Owners (up one percentage point to 36 per cent) were alone in being more confident of rate increases. The number of charterers of like mind, meanwhile, dropped 29 percentage points to just 15 per cent, the second-lowest figure in the life of the survey, behind only the 8 per cent recorded in August 2011. In fact, the number of charterers who thought that dry bulk rates would go lower over the coming year was greater, at 23 per cent, than the number anticipating that they would go higher.

Moore Stephens shipping partner, Richard Greiner, says, “Is there a more resilient industry than shipping? It seems unlikely. Despite the financial woes in Europe, notwithstanding the slump in the freight markets, and irrespective of tonnage overcapacity, our latest survey records an increase in confidence in the shipping sector for the fourth consecutive quarter. Indeed, 40 per cent of owners rate their prospects of making a new investment over the next twelve months at 7 out of 10, or higher – this despite the fact that the cost of finance is expected to go up over the same period. This is encouraging, although, if intent translates into action, it will do nothing to address the tonnage overhang. 

“It is true that the increased level of confidence recorded in the survey owes something to the conviction on the part of some respondents that the bottom of the market has now been reached. But a number of respondents nevertheless saw the beginnings of a recovery in the markets for more positive reasons, not least the continuing, indispensable role that shipping has to play in the conduct of global trade. Shipping is not an industry that will come and go. Nothing is going to replace shipping, at least not in the lifetimes of those involved in the industry today, or even of their great-great-grandchildren. So long-term players are looking to navigate a way through the difficulties currently besetting the industry, to emerge in calmer – and more profitable – waters.

“There is little new about the problems, which range from political and economic crises to the price of a good second mate. What is unusual is the severity of those problems, and their confluence at one period in time. And, as is so often the case, each possible remedy brings with it the potential for another difficulty. Fuel costs are a major expense, which shipping can do little to influence for the better. What it can do – and is doing already – is starting to explore the possibility of a future based on eco-friendly ships powered by fuel other than diesel oil. But, as more than one respondent noted, that places a potential cloud over some of the ships now being built and delivered, which could be made redundant by new technology long before they have served a useful working life. Furthermore, some owners are claiming that eco-friendly designs are being advanced by shipyards as a marketing gimmick to persuade companies to order more ships at a time when we already have too many.

“The number of respondents to our survey who cited operating costs as a significant performance-influencing factor is as high now as at any time in the past four years. Such cost increases, which are expected to continue for the next two to three years, can be ameliorated to a certain extent by good husbandry and sound business planning, and will of course be more easily borne in a profitable freight market. The same cannot be said, however, of some of the other issues affecting shipping. There is no end in sight, for example, to the political and economic strife that is today’s eurozone. And new finance is very hard to come by. Shipping is going to need the continuing support of the banks as it struggles to emerge from its current difficulties. Some argue that the banks have not done – and are not doing – enough. One leading operator has gone so far as to say that shipowners will have to become bankers in order to survive. He has even coined a name for this new hybrid being – the ‘shanker’.

“For those for whom this is a development too far, going to the bank with a sound business plan is likely to remain the preferred option. The banks, of course, will not want to see shipowners who lack confidence, any more than a gourmet likes to see a thin chef. Fortunately, on the evidence of our survey, confidence is something the industry does not lack. Nor does it lack the will to put its best foot forward in times of trouble, as evidenced by the recent Posidonia exhibition in Piraeus. Here, the great and the good of shipping gathered in their thousands, as indeed they have done every two years for the past forty years and more, come metaphorical rain or shine. In shipping, the show must go on.”

The Moore Stephens Shipping Confidence Survey includes responses from key players worldwide in the international shipping industry to a targeted, web-based survey by the Moore Stephens Shipping Industry Group.  Responses were received from owners, charterers, brokers, advisers, managers and others. Editors can apply for a copy of the survey by emailing chris@merlinco.com

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 636 offices of independent member firms in 100 countries, employing 21,197 people and generating revenues in 2011 of $2.3 billion. http://www.moorestephens.co.uk/  

For more information:                                                                        

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens LLP

Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191

email: richard.greiner@moorestephens.com