Shipping confidence up despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

Confidence in the shipping industry has risen in the last three months despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from leading shipping adviser and accountant BDO.

The average confidence level rose to 6.2 out of maximum score of 10.0 this quarter compared to 6.0 in Q4 2018.

Confidence was up in Europe, from 6.1 to 6.3, and in North America, from 5.2 to 5.6. In Asia, meanwhile, there was a drop in overall confidence levels to 5.8 from the 12-month high of 6.3 recorded in the previous quarter.

Brokers were behind much of the increase in confidence. Their score was up from 5.2 to 5.9. The rating for owners and managers was down slightly from 6.4 to 6.3 and from 6.0 to 5.8 respectively. Charterers’ confidence was also down, from 6.8 to 6.0, although this still compared favourably with the rating of 5.0 returned 12 months ago.

The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating for all respondents of 6.8 out of 10.0.

According to the BDO quarterly survey, the likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down from 5.5 to 5.3 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence in this regard reached a record high of 7.3. Brokers’ confidence was also up, from 4.1 to 4.9. However, owners recorded a fall from 6.3 to 5.4. Managers’ ratings were unchanged at 5.6.Expectations were up in Europe from 5.2 to 5.3, but down in Asia from 6.2 to 5.2.

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was down from 67% to 48%, the lowest figure since August 2016. The figures for all categories of respondent were down, in the case of charterers from 80% to 33%.

Demand trends were cited by 26% of respondents as the factor most likely to influence performance over the next 12 months. Competition (19%) and finance costs (13%) featured in second and third place respectively in this context.

Net freight rate sentiment was positive in all three main tonnage categories identified in the BDO survey, with 51% of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market. This represents a drop of 9 percentage points on the previous survey score of 60%. Respondents expecting lower tanker rates fell from 9% to 6% this quarter.

In the dry bulk sector, expectations of rate increases were up strongly from 38% to 52%, while the numbers anticipating lower rates climbed slightly to 13% from 11%. The numbers expecting higher container ship rates rose by one percentage point to 26%, whilst those expecting lower container ship rates increased to 25% from 23%.

When asked to predict where crude oil prices would be in 12 months’ time, 37% of respondents in BDO’s survey opted for the $60-$69/barrel range. This figure is almost identical to the figure of 36% from February 2018. 17% of respondents opted for the $50-$59/barrel range compared to the 19% who did so last year, while 28% favoured the $70-$79/barrel range which was unchanged from 12 months ago.

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at BDO, says, “It is encouraging to begin the year with a small uptick in confidence. Despite continuing doubts and fears about trade wars, China’s GDP, uncertainty over exchange rates, President Trump’s decision-making, Brexit and general political instability in many parts of the world, shipping can still find reasons to be cheerful.

“Net freight rate sentiment remains positive in all three main tonnage categories, and there is a growing recognition that shipping is emerging from an extremely difficult period as a leaner and greener industry.

“A number of respondents noted that the financial difficulties faced by many companies in recent years have changed the dynamics of the industry, with an increase in consolidation, restructuring and mergers & acquisitions.

“At the same time, there appears to be general recognition that the likes of the IMO 2020 and Ballast Water Management regulations will help rid the industry of poorly maintained tonnage and increase both the viability and the pedigree of the world fleet.

“This will also appeal to potential investors looking to back environmentally compliant and technologically savvy industries. It seems that the shipping industry must prioritise achieving the benefits of regulatory compliance and technological innovation over the coming years.”

The BDO (formerly Moore Stephens LLP) Shipping & Transport team has extensive experience delivering accountancy, tax and advisory services to the sector worldwide.

BDO delivers key information and insights to the shipping community, including the annual OpCost report, the quarterly Shipping Confidence Survey and a host of thought leadership on topical issues, such as regulatory developments and market conditions.

https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/industries/shipping-and-transport


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Moore Stephens reports four-year high in shipping industry confidence

Moore Stephens reports four-year high in shipping industry confidence

Shipping confidence reached a four-year high in the three months to end-February 2018, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 out of 10.0 in November 2017 to 6.4 this time. Confidence on the part of owners was also at a four-year high, up from 6.4 to 6.6, while managers’ confidence was up too, from 6.1 to 6.4. The rating for charterers, however, continued its recent erratic performance – down to 5.0 from 7.7 in November 2017, but up on the 4.7 recorded in August 2017. Confidence on the part of brokers, meanwhile, was down from 6.3 to 6.1.

Confidence was up in Europe from 6.3 to 6.6, equalling the highest ever rating for this category of respondent in the life of the survey, which was launched in May 2008 with an average confidence rating across all respondents in all geographical areas of 6.8. Confidence was also up in Asia, from 5.7 to 6.3, and in North America, from 5.8 to 5.9.

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was up on the previous survey from 5.3 to 5.5 out of a maximum possible score of 10.0, its highest level since May 2014. Of note was the increased confidence of charterers (up from 6.2 to 6.8) and of managers (up from 5.3 to 5.6). Geographically, increased expectations of major investment were highest in Asia (up from 5.0 to 5.8).

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was up from 59% last time to 64%, the highest figure since May 2008 (66%). One respondent said, “Starting next year, the industry looks set to benefit from capacity reductions at shipyards, but the cost of funding will rise for most market participants.”

Demand trends, meanwhile, were cited by 24% of respondents as the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months, followed by competition (19%) and finance costs (15%). According to one respondent, “The supply and demand equation will balance out in line with industry growth rate over the coming years.”

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was down by five percentage points on the previous survey to 39%, whilst those expecting lower rates were unchanged at 13%. Meanwhile, there was a four percentage-point increase, to 54%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, accompanied by a four percentage-point fall to 8% in the numbers anticipating lower rates. In the container ship sector, there was a two percentage-point increase to 38% in the numbers expecting higher rates, and a three percentage-point fall, to 12%, in those anticipating lower rates.

One respondent said, “The shipping market is still characterised by high volatility and excess tonnage in most sectors, particularly bulk carriers and tankers, but there is cause for slight optimism.”

When asked to predict where per-barrel crude oil prices would be in 12 months’ time, 36% of respondents opted for the $60-$69 range, as opposed to 29% when the same question was posed in February 2017. The 19% of respondents who opted for the $50-$59 range was just half the 38% who did so last year, while 28% of respondents favoured the $70-$79 price range, as opposed to just 10% 12 months ago.

Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens partner, Shipping & Transport, says, “The volatile nature of the shipping industry dictates that optimism should be tempered with caution. But a four-year high in confidence must be welcomed as extremely good news.

“Shipping is more confident of making a major new investment over the next 12 months than at any time in almost four years, even though finance will probably be costlier to access in the year ahead. Net freight rate sentiment is positive in all main tonnage categories and, whilst slightly down in tankers, it increased both in the dry bulk and container ship trades.

“Familiar problems persist. Excess tonnage in many trades and insufficient demolition levels continue to perpetuate uncertainty, and freight rates are not yet at the levels required to turn promise into reality. In the wider world, the impact on shipping of continuing political unrest in the Middle East, the US President’s proposal to impose tariffs on US steel imports, and the response of other countries to this, remains to be seen. All of this serves to underline how vulnerable shipping is to geopolitical influences. But the industry must take heart from its proven durability. Confidence breeds confidence, and confidence breeds success.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and transport & logistics adviser. Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 614 offices of independent member firms in 112 countries, employing 30,168 people and generating revenues in 2017 of $2.9 billion. www.moorestephens.co.uk/shipping-transport


For more information:
Richard Greiner
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

Good opportunities for offshore investors to acquire distressed assets

Shipping and offshore specialist law firm Wikborg Rein says current low oil prices could mean there are bargains to be had for investors in the offshore sector who follow recommended procedures for assessing and acquiring distressed companies.

Birgitte Karlsen, a partner in the London offices of Wikborg Rein, says, “The prolonged period of low oil prices, combined with reduced investment and contract awards, is taking its toll on oil service companies in the North Sea and elsewhere. For some, this may be a time of opportunity when bargains can be had, generating attractive rewards for cash-rich investors. But it is important to be aware of the risks involved in trying to acquire distressed businesses.

“These days, oil service companies may be in varying stages of distress, ranging from a negative cashflow situation through to default, with a formal court-appointed debt restructuring or bankruptcy process in place. Time is of the essence as the distressed business either has an immediate need for assistance and funding or has already defaulted on its obligations.”

Finn Bjørnstad, a partner in Wikborg Rein’s Oslo offices, adds, “If the target company is not listed, the buyer will have significant flexibility as to how to approach and structure an acquisition. The acquisition may include both debt and equity, and new equity may be used to buy back debt at a discount. Good planning and an understanding of the stakeholders’ position, as well as the dynamics of the market, are essential.

“Some companies may already be subject to Chapter 11-type proceedings, in one or more jurisdictions, and it is essential to understand the legal implications of such proceedings with regard to approval by creditors, potential subsequent annulment of the transaction, and timing aspects. Experience shows that the legal implications in many jurisdictions are less predictable and more complicated than expected. Buyers should seek expert legal advice in preparing an effective acquisition strategy with as few surprises as possible.”

“A listed company will in most cases be subject to either government or stock- exchange takeover regulations. On the Oslo Stock Exchange, for instance, a voluntary takeover offer usually takes between four to six weeks to complete, and can take longer if the desired acceptance level is not reached at the expiry of the offer period. In the event that the listed company has a concentrated shareholder structure, a straight and quick block trade acquisition of the majority of the shares in the target company may be possible in certain cases. Such majority acquisition will in most instances trigger a mandatory takeover offer to the remaining shareholders.”

Birgitte Karlsen concludes, “There is currently a definite upside to buying distressed businesses in the offshore sector which the right buyers may be able to exploit, provided they are fully aware of the risks involved before entering into negotiations.”

Wikborg Rein is a pre-eminent law firm in the shipping and offshore sector, and a major player on the international scene. Services to the maritime industry include ship, project and lease finance, corporate, contract negotiation, offshore and construction projects, sale and purchase, ship registration, insurance, casualty response, carriage of goods, ship arrest and international dispute resolution. More information on the firm and its partners can be found at www.wr.no

Moore Stephens says offshore maritime sector must watch costs and risk exposure

International accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens says companies in the offshore maritime sector need to keep a close watch on costs and manage their exposure to risk in the wake of the dramatic fall in oil prices.

Cassie Forman, a director with the Moore Stephens Shipping & Offshore Maritime group, says: “It is remarkable how quickly the dramatic fall in oil prices has fed through to increasing levels of financial stress in the oil and gas services industry, where the sudden drop to around $50 a barrel is triggering cost-cutting across much of the sector. Oil and gas majors are already cutting costs, and several have recently announced cuts to investment in a number of major projects. Smaller players are also reconsidering their capital deployment.

“There was a significant increase in the number of insolvencies of UK oil and gas services companies last year. Although this increase is from a relatively low base, it is significant because insolvencies in the sector have been rare over the last five years.”

Referring to the recent bankruptcy of market-leading bunker supplier OW Bunker, Forman says: “This really set alarm bells ringing in the offshore maritime and shipping industries. Although the underlying reasons for the failure are still being analysed, the fall in oil prices is certain to have played a significant part.
Meanwhile, references to major risk management and fraud losses, and to unrecoverable credit, have been common throughout all reports to date involving the company’s collapse.

“Any industry which suffers what is effectively a 50 percent reduction in income over a three-month period is going to suffer. But any sector where the revenue is predicated on the price of oil, such as the offshore maritime industry, is particularly susceptible because of its exposure to counter-party risk and potential credit line difficulties.

“With oil prices now at their lowest level for five years or more, the offshore maritime sector needs to look at costs in light of its current reduced revenue stream. This is not a time for speculative or non-essential spending. Rather, it is a time for strategic financial planning with experienced advisers who understand the risks peculiar to the industry.

“The offshore maritime sector also needs to make sure that it has proper contingency planning in place, and effective risk management procedures embedded into the everyday activities of the company. Sound corporate governance and a proper management structure and technical support systems are central to the ability to identify, control and ultimately mitigate risk.”

Moore Stephens LLP is noted for a number of industry specialisations and is widely acknowledged as a leading shipping, offshore maritime and insurance adviser. Moore Stephens’ unique ship operating costs benchmarking tool, OpCost, now includes vessel data and future operating costs forecasting data on offshore support vessels, which could be invaluable for budget planning and transfer pricing studies. www.moorestephens.co.uk

Moore Stephens LLP is a member firm of Moore Stephens International Limited, one of the world's leading accounting and consulting associations, with 626 offices of independent member firms in 103 countries, employing 26,290 people and generating revenues in 2014 of $2.7 billion.

For more information:
Cassie Forman
Moore Stephens LLP
Tel: +44 (0)20 7334 9191
cassie.forman@moorestephens.com